Kenyan Prime Minister Raila Odinga saw himself as a mentor for Movement for Democratic change leader and Prime Minister-designate Morgan Tsvangirai and urged Tsvangirai not to accept any power-sharing deal unless it gave him proper executive powers.
At the same time, however, he said that Tsvangirai should consider an agreement in which President Robert Mugabe made some concessions to lessen the power of the presidency.
He said such an agreement would be better than nothing and might create a “safe exit” for Mugabe which would be in the interest of the Zimbabwean people.
Odinga had a keen interest in Zimbabwe because his sister’s daughter was still living in Zimbabwe.
Full cable:
Viewing cable 08NAIROBI2140, PRIME MINISTER, DEFENSE MINISTER BRIEF CODEL PAYNE
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Reference ID |
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VZCZCXRO2824
PP RUEHROV
DE RUEHNR #2140/01 2541649
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 101649Z SEP 08 ZDS CTG STATE SVC #0092 1561038
FM AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7004
INFO IGAD COLLECTIVE
AMEMBASSY HARARE 1643
AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM 2149
AMEMBASSY PRETORIA 9202
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 NAIROBI 002140
C O R R E C T E D C O P Y (INFO ADDEES)
SIPDIS
AF/E FOR MARIA BEYZEROV, H FOR ANDREW MACDERMOTT
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/10/2018
TAGS: OREP PREL PGOV KDEM KCRM ASEC ETRD PREF KE
SUBJECT: PRIME MINISTER, DEFENSE MINISTER BRIEF CODEL PAYNE
NAIROBI 00002140 001.2 OF 004
C O R R E C T E D COPY – ADDED ADDRESSEES
Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Pamela Slutz for reasons 1.4 (b)
and (d).
¶1. (C) Summary: In separate meetings on August 7-8, CODEL
Payne discussed a wide range of issues with Prime Minister
Raila Odinga, Defense Minister Mohammed Yusuf Haji, Trade
Minister Uhuru Kenyatta, Minister of Higher Education Sally
Kosgei, former President Daniel arap Moi, Nobel laureate
Wangari Maathai, and members of the Parliamentary Committee
on Defense and Foreign Relations. Odinga focused on
constitutional reform and the future governance system of
Kenya, the progress of the commissions investigating
post-election violence and electoral irregularities, and the
need to create a better business environment in Kenya. Haji
expressed concern about ongoing insecurity in Somalia and the
threat it represents to Kenya’s national security. CODEL
Payne also held a number of Somalia-focused meetings on
August 7-8 and 11, including meetings with TFG
representatives, international NGOs operating in Somalia, UN
Special Representative on Somalia Ahmedou Ould-Abdallah, and
officials from the UN High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR)
responsible for Kenya and regional programs. The CODEL
attended the Mission’s commemoration of the tenth anniversary
of the Embassy bombing on August 7. End summary.
ATTENDEES
¶2. (U) Representative Donald Payne (D-NJ), Chairman of the
Subcommittee on Africa and Global Health, House Committee for
Foreign Affairs, met with a number of Kenyan and Somali
officials on August 7-8 and August 11, 2008. On August 7,
CODEL Payne met with Deputy Speaker of the Kenyan Parliament
Farah Maalim and representatives of the Parliamentary
Committees on Defense and Foreign Relations; representatives
of the Transitional Federal Government of Somalia; and Kenyan
Defense Minister Yusuf Haji. Participating in the August 7
meetings were Rep. Payne, Ted Dagne of the Congressional
Research Service, and Noelle LuSane, Staff Director, House
Committee on Foreign Affairs, Subcommittee on Africa and
Global Health. On August 8, Rep. Payne and Mr. Dagne met with
Kenyan Prime Minister Raila Odinga, NGOs operating in
Somalia, UN Special Representative to the Secretary General
on Somalia Ahmedou Ould Abdallah, Minister of Trade Uhuru
Kenyatta, Minister of Higher Education Sally Kosgei, former
President Moi, and former Parliamentarian and women’s rights
activist Njoki Ndungu. On August 11, Rep. Payne and Mr. Dagne
met with Nobel laureate Professor Wangari Maathai and
representatives from the Kenya and regional offices of the UN
High Commission on Refugees.
MEETING WITH PRIME MINISTER ODINGA
¶3. (U) On August 8, Representative Payne and Mr. Dagne met
with Prime Minister Odinga for a lengthy dialogue on a number
of important issues. Also present were DCM Pamela Slutz,
National Intelligence Officer for Africa at the National
Intelligence Council and former Ambassador to Kenya Johnnie
Carson and poloff (notetaker). On the Kenyan side,
participants were PM Odinga, Ambassador Binsai Chepsongol,
Director of the Americas Office at the Ministry of Foreign
Affairs, and Caroli Omondi, Odinga’s chief of staff.
CONSOLIDATING UNITY AND THE PM’S ROLE
¶4. (C) Odinga noted that, since his June 2008 visit to
Washington, there had been a number of developments in the
workings of the coalition government. He reported efforts to
consolidate unity between the two factions of the coalition
(Odinga’s ODM party and affiliates, and President Kibaki’s
PNU party and affiliates) were largely successful. Odinga
said that a number of items on the reform agenda agreed to
during the Annan mediation process are still pending (he
cited constitutional reform, land reform, truth and
reconciliation, questions of responsibility for post-election
violence), but that the coalition was working to make
progress on these issues. The role of the Prime Minister is
new, Odinga added and noted that, as it is human nature to
resist new things, he was not surprised to find resistance in
some quarters to his new role and responsibilities. However,
he said, he has a productive working relationship with
President Kibaki, who has “put his foot down” and ordered
some previously reluctant cabinet ministers to cooperate with
Odinga.
¶5. (C) Because the cabinet is so large, Kibaki and Odinga had
agreed to set up six interagency cabinet-level committees to
discuss issues and refer those not resolved or needing
NAIROBI 00002140 002.2 OF 004
Cabinet-level approval to the full Cabinet. The President
chairs the committee on national security, consisting of the
ministries of defense and internal security/provincial
administration and the National Security and Intelligence
Service (NSIS). Odinga clarified that he, as Prime Minister,
has “no direct authority” over these three units or over the
Kenya Police Service. The Prime Minister chairs the other
five committees covering infrastructure, services, finance,
investment/public-private partnerships and planning. In fact,
the ministries of planning and public service report directly
to the Prime Minister. These committees make decisions and
then report back in plenary sessions of the whole cabinet.
The PM noted that implementation of GOK policy and programs
is his responsibility–one he takes very seriously.
UPDATE ON COMMISSIONS INVESTIGATING ELECTION, VIOLENCE
¶6. (C) Odinga noted that the commission looking into the
conduct of the elections (the Kriegler commission) was well
advanced in its work and its report was expected soon, and
that the commission examining post-election violence (the
Waki commission) had begun collecting evidence and had been
granted a one-month extension to its original three-month
mandate. Odinga added that the bill to establish a Truth
Justice and Reconciliation Commission was currently in
Parliament (note: Parliament is currently in recess until
early October). The scope of the proposed commission would be
to examine historical justices and inequalities dating back
to Kenya’s independence, with a mandate of about one year.
Odinga also noted that Bishop Desmond Tutu had been mentioned
as a possible chairman/commissioner due to his work on
reconciliation efforts in South Africa. He did not say
whether Tutu had actually been approached by anyone from the
Kenyan side.
CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM BILLS MOVING AHEAD, NEED SOME REVISION
¶7. (C) Odinga said that there are currently two bills related
to the constitutional reform process in Parliament: the
Constitution of Kenya Amendment Bill and the Constitution of
Kenya Review Bill. The first bill entrenches the review
process in the constitution to insulate it from litigation;
the second sets out a roadmap for the review process. Odinga
noted that there are some concerns with both bills. The first
draft tabled of the Amendment Bill set out unrealistically
high demands for voter turnout and approval of a new
constitution by referendum, but Odinga felt these provisions
were likely to be amended before Parliament reconvenes.
Odinga also noted that he did not think much time was needed
for the constitutional reform process because the majority of
any proposed text was not likely to be contentious. Odinga
noted that the issues had been fully debated, clearly
delineated and mostly resolved in the multi-year (2003-2005)
national consultation process that produced the two competing
drafts of a new constitution: the so-called “Bomas” draft
(favored by ODM, among others) and the so-called “Wako” draft
(named after the Attorney General). (Note: It was the Wako
draft, submitted by the Kibaki government for a national
referendum in November 2005, that was previously rejected by
the voters.) Odinga thought that it was not necessary to
repeat the multi-year process. A panel of experts selected by
Parliament could more efficiently examine the remaining
controversial issues, he added. Odinga cited the two most
controversial issues as: first, devolution, or the
decentralization of authorities and powers to new regional
administrative units which would replace the existing
provincial/district units, and second, the relationship and
power sharing betweebn the President and Vice President and
the Prime Minister. Odinga added that even those who were
previously opposed to devolution or decentralization now
agree that some degree of devolution is necessary.
HOW SHOULD KENYA BE GOVERNED?
¶8. (C) Not surprisingly, Odinga expressed a preference for a
Parliamentary rather than a Presidential system for Kenya,
and said that Kenya’s experience since independence had
highlighted the weaknesses of the Presidential system in the
Kenyan context. Odinga expressed concerns about the
potentially divisive nature of a system that concentrates so
much power in the hands of the President, and noted that the
winner-take-all nature of this system had inspired some
politicians to instill artificial fears in some communities
that induced them to vote as an ethnic bloc out of fear.
Odinga added that a Parliamentary system where the party with
the majority of seats forms a government and chooses a Prime
Minister would be better for Kenya. Odinga argued that Kenya
NAIROBI 00002140 003 OF 004
would be better off without presidential elections because,
given the stakes involved, these elections had evolved into
violent, tribalistic competitions that would continue to pit
Kenyans against Kenyans every five years. (Comment: It is
clear that Odinga and the majority of ODM still favor a
severe reduction in the powers of the presidency. End
comment.)
REFUGEES: CONCERN ABOUT ECONOMIC MIGRANTS
¶9. (C) Mr. Dagne raised the issue of Somali refugees in
Kenya, and asked about the impact of the official closure of
the Kenya-Somalia border and whether Kenya was considering
opening more camp space for recent Somali arrivals. Odinga
responded that Kenya has long been a generous host to
refugees fleeing war-torn neighboring countries. He noted
that the government was considering moving refugees from
Dadaab to Kakuma, as there is more space there since some
southern Sudanese refugees have returned home. He also noted
that some asylum seekers might properly be considered
economic migrants rather than refugees, and that Kenya will
continue to accept all legitimate refugees.
FACILITATING TRADE AND INVESTMENT
¶10. (C) Odinga proudly described his recent engagement with
the private sector, including a series of plenary and
roundtable discussions chaired by Odinga with business
leaders and key GOK officials in ministries like Trade,
Industrialization, Finance, and Agriculture. Odinga said
that, as a result of these discussions, a number of key
policy decisions that had been pending for a long time were
finally made. For example, GOK ministries and parastatals
committed to address power outages in Nairobi’s industrial
area, to reduce the number of police roadblocks on major
routes to speed cargo traffic, to expedite backlogged VAT
refund claims, and to stop illegal export of copper stolen
from power lines and transformers to China. He cited complex
bureaucratic procedures, corruption, poor infrastructure and
insecurity as major obstacles to growth in foreign direct
investment. He noted that he plans to do a major trade
promotion trip to the U.S. in early 2009.
SECURITY, POLICING AND CRIME
¶11. (C) Odinga agreed with Rep. Payne that crime and
insecurity are major challenges confronting Kenya. He said
that the GOK plans to introduce closed-circuit TV monitoring
in cities, as well as to raise salaries for police to combat
petty crime and bribery committed by police officers. He
noted that there are a number of small arms in the hands of
criminals, which he attributed to weapons crossing Kenya’s
insecure and porous border with Somalia. He also noted
efforts to achieve the recommended UN ratio of police to
citizens, as well as the need to depoliticize Kenya’s
security forces. Odinga and his advisor, Caroli Omondi,
mentioned that the Waki Commission was also tasked with
recommending ways to increase the efficiency of the police.
One of the Waki Commissioners, retired New Zealand police
official Gavin McFadden, was responsible for compiling these
recommendations. The options under consideration range from
putting the police more firmly under the control of the
Minister of Internal Security (instead of the largely
autonomous Police Commissioner) to decentralizing the police
and changing their mission into more of a community-based
police force.
BASHIR INDICTMENT: FOCUS SHOULD REMAIN ON AU INTERVENTION
¶12. (C) When asked about the ICC’s recent indictment of
Sudanese President Bashir, Odinga said that his position was
a bit different than the official GOK position, which was not
yet formulated because the issue had yet to be discussed by
the full Cabinet. He said that he remained very concerned
that Bashir was not doing enough to end the genocide in
Darfur, and that the ICC indictment was something of a
distraction from the core issue that the situation in Darfur
was not being addressed by Bashir’s government. He noted that
the AU has the primary responsibility to push for a speedy
resolution in Darfur, and that any UN or ICC efforts are
complementary to the AU mandate.
ZIMBABWE: TIME FOR MDC TO MAKE A DEAL?
¶13. (C) Odinga reiterated that his strong stance on Zimbabwe
remains unchanged, and noted that it seems to be bearing some
fruit in terms of inspiring other African leaders to speak
NAIROBI 00002140 004.2 OF 004
out. (Note: Odinga cited the leaders of Tanzania, Rwanda,
Burkina Faso and Botswana as members of the “new generation”
that has been more forward-leaning on the Zimbabwe issue.
Conversely, he cited Gabonese President Bongo as someone who
inappropriately received Mugabe at the recent AU summit in
Egypt with “velvet gloves.”) Odinga mentioned that he had
spoken to South African President Mbeki and urged him to be
more proactive in the talks between Zimbabwean President
Mugabe and his challenger, Morgan Tsvangirai. Odinga said
that Tsvangirai’s party should not accept any power-sharing
agreement unless it gave him some proper executive powers. He
added that Tsvangirai should, however, consider an agreement
in which Mugabe has made some concessions to lessen the power
of the presidency. Such an agreement would be better than
nothing, Odinga said, and might create a “safe exit” for
Mugabe, which is in the interest of the Zimbabwean people.
Odinga showed Rep. Payne a 50 billion Zimbabwe dollar note,
which his sister had brought back from a recent visit to her
daughter, who is still living in Zimbabwe, and cited it as a
small concrete example of how bad things have gotten in that
country. (Note: Odinga clearly sees himself as a mentor to
Tsvangirai, and appears to empathize with Tsvangirai’s
predicament. His family connections to Zimbabwe, and the loss
of his sister’s formerly successful business there, have also
kept the issue in the forefront for Odinga. End note.)
LAND RIGHTS AND IDPS
¶14. (C) Odinga noted that land has been a contentious issue
in Kenya since independence, and cited post-independence
decisions to allocate very large farms in Rift Valley to
Kenyatta loyalists as one of the root causes of the recent
conflict there. Because of the number of enormous farms of
2,000-5,000 acres in Rift Valley and Central provinces,
Odinga said, many former residents have been pushed onto 3-5
acre plots or are squatting in the Mau forest. Odinga
suggested moving some residents together into small
settlements and consolidating some of their unsustainable
small farms into successful larger-scale commercial farms for
the benefit of all the landholders in the community, like the
kibbutz model used in Israel. Odinga also noted that the
Ministry of Lands is currently preparing a new land and land
use policy, which will soon be presented to the relevant
Cabinet committee and then published in Parliament. On
internally displaced persons (IDPs), Odinga said that less
than 100,000 remain displaced. Those IDPs are unable to
return due to fear of a hostile environment or because they
were originally squatters and now have nowhere else to go. He
underlined the importance of the inter-ethnic reconciliation
work currently being “spearheaded” by the GOK, with the
participation of the provincial administrations, religious
institutions, and civil society.
MEETING WITH MINISTER HAJI: BORDER FEARS
¶15. (C) On August 7, Rep. Payne and Mr. Dagne also met with
Minister of Defense Mohammed Yusuf Haji. Haji is a close
associate of President Kibaki. Haji described the coalition
government as working well, and felt that cooperation across
party lines in the Cabinet committees was good. Haji
expressed concern about the security situation in Somalia and
the threat it presents to Kenya’s national security
interests. (Note: Haji, an ethnic Somali, is from Kenya’s
North Eastern province that borders Somalia. End note.) Haji
emphasized the urgent need for a functioning government in
Somalia, which would weaken the influence of Islamist
extremism in the country. He noted that, although physical
closure of the nearly 1,000 kilometer long border was not
possible, it was important to maintain the official border
closure and troop deployment in strategic areas in order to
prevent any influx of bad actors into Kenya. Regarding the
Ethiopian presence in Somalia, Haji noted that, given the
long history of distrust between Somalis and Ethiopians, any
Ethiopian intervention will be viewed with suspicion by
Somalis even if the underlying intent is good. He also
expressed concern that the Ethiopian presence in Somalia
could be used by Islamists as a pretext to gain increased
support for their political agenda. Mr. Dagne raised the
issue of Kenyan Somalis allegedly extradited to Ethiopia in
early 2007. While sympathetic, Haji pointed out that
citizenship in the border region is often ambiguous, and many
Kenyan Somalis, as well as members of the coastal Digo tribe,
have no official papers, passport, or national identity card.
¶16. (U) CODEL Payne has not had the opportunity to clear on
this cable.
RANNEBERGER
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