Movement for Democratic Change secretary general Welshman Ncube said sanctions imposed on President Robert Mugabe and his lieutenants were effective in turning the heat on Zimbabwe’s primary decision makers but he expressed concern that an asset freeze had not been implemented.
He urged the United States to expel children of those on its sanctions list insisting that the move would make ruling party insiders think long and hard before continuing with their disastrous path.
Ncube also said the party’s top six were divided over whether to participate in by-elections or not with party leader Morgan Tsvangirai, deputy secretary general Gift Chimanikire and chairman Isaac Matongo for a boycott while vice-president Gibson Sibanda, Ncube himself and treasurer Fletcher Dulini-Ncube saying the party should participate or it would lose its relevance.
Full cable:
Viewing cable 02HARARE2560, AMBASSADOR’S CONVERSATION WITH MDC
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 002560
SIPDIS
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER
LONDON FOR CGURNEY
PARIS FOR CNEARY
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/15/2012
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR’S CONVERSATION WITH MDC
SECRETARY-GENERAL
SIPDIS
Classified By: political section chief Matt Harrington. Reasons: 1.5 (
B) and (D).
Summary
——–
¶1. (C) MDC Secretary-General Welshman Ncube told the
Ambassador on November 15 that the treason case against him
and his party compatriots has no legal merit, but it could be
assigned to a judge who is inclined to give more weight to
political considerations. He described growing resentment
within the MDC about South Africa’s stand on Zimbabwe and
said the party is likely to refocus its lobbying efforts
within SADC away from South Africa toward Mozambique, Malawi,
Botswana, and Mauritius. The MDC likely will contest the
Kuwadzana parliamentary by-election to replace former MDC
spokesman Learnmore Jongwe but will make a broader policy
decision after that on whether to continue to participate in
elections. Ncube claimed not to know why the independent
autopsy results on Jongwe had not yet been made available but
did not dismiss the possibility of suicide. He urged the USG
to impose an asset freeze with haste on Zimbabwe’s primary
decision-makers and said expulsion of their children from the
United States would have an effect. End Summary.
Treason trial
————-
¶2. (C) In a November 15 conversation with the Ambassador
and polchief, MDC Secretary-General Welshman Ncube noted that
the treason trial in which he, MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai,
and MDC MP Renson Gasela are facing charges of plotting the
assassination of Robert Mugabe had been postponed from
November to February 2003. He said the MDC had originally
sought a shorter delay because the Government has refused to
provide the defense with a copy of the incriminating
videotape which is the state’s key piece of evidence. Ncube
claimed that none of the charges would be sustainable in an
independent court, but he expressed worry that the case could
be assigned to a judge who would render a decision based on
political calculations, not legal merits.
¶3. (C) On a separate legal development, Ncube was asked to
comment on the November 14 Supreme Court decision denying the
MDC a copy of the electronic version of the voters roll used
in the March presidential election. (Note: The GOZ has
refused to provide the MDC with either hard copies or
electronic versions of the voters roll, a thorough analysis
of which will be crucial to the opposition party’s pending
legal challenge of the presidential election results. End
Note.) Ncube said the presiding Supreme Court justices had
used a minor legal technicality to deny the MDC’s request for
the electronic version of the roll. His party would now try
to obtain hard copies, but Ncube pointed out that scanning
the information from those into a computer program capable of
performing analysis would be a daunting, time-consuming task.
South Africa
————
¶4. (C) Ncube said many members of the MDC’s national
executive felt increasing resentment about South Africa’s
refusal to engage more actively in the search for a lasting
solution of Zimbabwe’s political crisis. He mentioned a
recent meeting in Harare with visiting Mbeki advisers who
said they were well-briefed on the political situation and
preferred to focus exclusively on the economic crisis.
According to Ncube, they clearly conveyed the impression that
they were looking at ways in which South Africa could help
assuage the economic situation, but were less interested in
addressing questions of governance. He said that South
Africa’s passivity raised questions in the MDC about their
appropriateness in any future mediation. The MDC was
considering shifting its lobbying efforts within SADC away
from South Africa and toward countries such as Malawi,
Mozambique, Botswana, and Mauritius, which have demonstrated
a greater willingness to express concern about developments
in Zimbabwe.
Contesting elections
——————–
¶5. (C) Ncube acknowledged that the MDC national executive
was currently considering whether to boycott future
elections, given that ZANU-PF has perfected the art of
“winning” them by utilizing violence, intimidation, food, and
fraud. The party’s top six leaders first gave serious
consideration to this possibility after the ruling party’s
“victory” in the Insiza parliamentary by-election in late
October. According to Ncube, they split right down the
middle, with Tsvangirai, Deputy Secretary-General Gift
Chimanikire, and national chairman Isaac Matongo favoring a
boycott, while Ncube, Vice-President Gibson Sibanda, and
treasurer Fletcher Dulini-Ncube opposing it. Ncube
emphasized that it would be difficult to convince the MDC’s
supporters to continue fighting for positive change if the
party itself decided simply to concede elections. He thought
the national executive would decide to contest the upcoming
(but not yet scheduled) Kuwadzana by-election to replace
former party spokesman Learnmore Jongwe — since at leat six
of its members were interested in contesting the seat. He
thought the party would then make a broader policy decision
on contesting elections after that.
Jongwe autopsy results
———————-
¶6. (C) Polchief noted the government pathologist’s
conclusion that Learnmore Jongwe had died of chloroquine
poisoning and asked why the results of the second,
independent autopsy commissioned by the MDC had not yet been
announced. Ncube replied that he was unsure why the South
African pathologist retained by the party had not yet
provided his findings. He did not rule out that Jongwe may
have committed suicide, saying that the former MDC
spokesman’s lawyer had painted a bleak picture of his legal
options about a week-and-a-half before his death, in which he
had apparently stressed the likelihood of Jongwe’s facing the
death penalty. Those who visited Jongwe soon after this
meeting found him to be particularly morose. At about the
same time, according to Ncube, Jongwe had asked at least one
friend to bring him chloroquine, claiming to be suffering
from malaria and saying that the prison authorities had
refused to provide the appropriate medication.
Food
—-
¶7. (C) Ncube expressed concern about politicization of
international food assistance, reporting that he had received
numerous complaints that ZANU-PF functionaries at the local
level are involved in selection of beneficiaries. He added
that he had received the most complaints about World Vision’s
food distribution efforts, and said the NGO’s national
director had refused to meet with the MDC’s shadow
agriculture minister. Noting that he had observed many food
distribution events personally, the Ambassador explained that
beneficiaries are selected in a rigorous, transparent process
in which the entire community is involved. Local authorities
beholden to the ruling party do not have veto power, he said.
The Ambassador encouraged the MDC to establish a liaison
office whose objective would be to become familiar with WFP’s
beneficiary selection process and to vet complaints
thoroughly before passing them on to the UN and us. He
expressed his surprise that World Vision’s director, whom he
knew well, had refused to meet with MDC officials, but he
undertook to encourage her to do so.
U.S. Pressure
————-
¶8. (C) The MDC’s Secretary-General thought the targeted
sanctions imposed by the U.S. to date had been effective in
turning up the heat on Zimbabwe’s primary decision-makers.
He expressed concern, however, that an asset freeze had not
yet been implemented and believed the absence of follow-up
sanctions had diminished pressure for a solution. Ncube also
encouraged the USG to expel the children of those on our
sanctions list, insisting that that move would make ruling
party insiders think long and hard before continuing with
their disastrous policies.
Comment
——-
¶9. (C) One of the MDC’s leading intellectuals, Ncube did
not evince much hope that Zimbabwe’s political crisis would
be resolved in the short term, at least not peacefully. The
MDC has invested significant time and resources during the
past two years in trying to convince South Africa to engage
more actively in addressing Zimbabwe’s political crisis.
Ncube’s remarks suggest a growing feeling among the party
leadership that that effort has failed, and that it is a
waste of time to expect South Africa to play the role of fair
broker. We believe contesting the by-election in Kuwadzana,
a high-density suburb in Harare, is the better route.
Although ZANU-PF will employ its usual comprehensive array of
tactics to win the seat in this MDC stronghold, the people of
Kuwadzana will not be as vulnerable to violence and food
manipulation as rural residents, and the ruling party’s abuse
of the electoral process will be much more visible to outside
observers. We plan to send embassy officers regularly to the
constituency, beginning several weeks before the election,
and we will encourage other diplomatic missions to do the
same.
SULLIVAN
(20 VIEWS)
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