Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni is patterning himself after President Robert Mugabe and wants to position his son, Lieutenant Colonel Muhoozi Kainerugaba Museveni, as his eventual successor.
Former Ugandan Minister of Health Mike Mukula downplayed talk of First Lady Janet Museveni’s presidential ambitions, saying that she preferred to remain the power behind the throne, shielded from public criticism and scrutiny, as she lacked the stamina and focus needed to run a presidential campaign.
Mukula said Museveni was grooming his son but Muhoozi was still too young to mount a presidential bid for 2016.
Muhoozi returned from the US Army Command and General Staff College in mid-2008 to assume command of the new Special Forces.
Full cable:
Viewing cable 09KAMPALA1096, UGANDA: NATIONAL RESISTANCE MOVEMENT INSIDER SEES
If you are new to these pages, please read an introduction on the structure of a cable as well as how to discuss them with others. See also the FAQs
|
Reference ID |
Created |
Classification |
Origin |
VZCZCXRO2054
RR RUEHRN RUEHROV
DE RUEHKM #1096/01 2660608
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 230608Z SEP 09
FM AMEMBASSY KAMPALA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1796
INFO RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RUEHXR/RWANDA COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KAMPALA 001096
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/21/2019
SUBJECT: UGANDA: NATIONAL RESISTANCE MOVEMENT INSIDER SEES
TROUBLE AHEAD
REF: A. KAMPALA 00946
¶B. KAMPALA 01044
Classified By: Pol/Econ Chief Aaron Sampson for
reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).
¶1. (C) “Captain” Mike Mukula, disgraced former Ugandan Health
Minister and current National Resistance Movement (NRM)
vice-chairman for eastern Uganda, warned that the 2011
presidential elections will be worse than the deeply flawed
2006 presidential contest. Mukula, whose political
reputation was battered by the 2006 Global Alliance for
Vaccines and Immunization (GAVI) scandal, said the September
10-12 riots provided a brief preview of one potential
election scenario. He also said President Museveni’s
popularity was decreasing within the NRM, and speculated that
Museveni may be interested in setting up his son, Muhoozi, as
dauphin. Mukula said Museveni ultimately listens to only two
countries – the U.S. and the U.K. – and urged the U.S. to
pressure Museveni to reinstate presidential term limits.
Mukula himself, however, hopes to run for president in 2016.
End Summary.
——————————–
The Many Lives of “Captain” Mike
——————————–
¶2. (C) An ethnic Iteso from Soroti District in eastern
Uganda, Mukula’s training as a commercial pilot in Texas
earned him the sobriquet “Captain”. He has managing
interests in the Voice of Teso radio station, the Soroti Inn,
United Airlines (Uganda) Ltd., Voice Media, and Riham
Biscuits. Mukula prefaced his luncheon discussion with the
Mission with a detailed run-down of his accomplishments to
date. This included his personal role in improving Uganda’s
health indicators while serving as Health Minister from 2001
to 2006, participation in a counter terrorism course in
Israel in 2002, and his subsequent organization of the Arrow
Boys militia to push the Lord’s Resistance Army out of Teso
region in 2003. Mukula said he was working on a
correspondence PhD in Philosophy at a South African
university, had attended Harvard’s Kennedy School of
Government, and was currently writing a book on corruption in
Africa – a topic he claims he is the first to examine.
————–
The “Fall Guy”
————–
¶3. (C) Mukula lost his Cabinet post in 2006 and was briefly
imprisoned in 2007 after being accused of diverting USD 1.5
million from the Global Alliance for Vaccines and
Immunization (GAVI) program to NRM coffers. Describing
himself as Museveni’s “fall guy,” Mukula blamed his
involvement in the GAVI scandal on Museveni’s need to placate
international donors concerned about corruption, and his own
rising popularity as evidenced by a newspaper poll that
listed Mukula as more popular with the NRM faithful than the
President. He claimed that most of the missing GAVI funds
were used by First Lady Janet Museveni. Although he said he
understood the political calculations that ended, at least
for the time being, his political career, Mukula underscored
the political nature of his downfall by confiding that he has
been unable to leave the country since his passport was
confiscated three years ago.
——————–
Museveni and the NRM
——————–
¶4. (C) Now the NRM’s vice-chairman for eastern Uganda and a
key member of Museveni’s re-election campaign, Mukula
complained that there is no separation between the NRM and
Ugandan state institutions. He called the military Uganda’s
“fourth estate” and said Museveni regards the army as his
personal political party. Mukula highlighted the complete
dominance of Museveni’s Banyankole ethnic group throughout
the government, military, and business community, and
asserted that the NRM now serves as nothing more than
platform for the President, springing to life only during
election campaigns.
¶5. (C) Mukula claimed to have shared his view of the NRM’s
degeneration with Museveni directly, along with warnings that
support for Museveni and the NRM is slipping. Mukula said
Museveni had hoped to organize an internal party primary to
select the NRM’s presidential candidate but quickly scuttled
the idea after realizing that his popularity within the NRM
is slipping. Mukula named Ugandan Vice President Gilbert
KAMPALA 00001096 002 OF 003
Bukenya, an ethnic Baganda, as the NRM’s most popular leader.
He said Museveni kept Bukenya on as his Vice President to
keep tabs on Bukenya’s potential presidential ambitions.
————————-
2011 Presidential Contest
————————-
¶6. (C) Describing the recent riots as “Uganda’s 9/11,”
Mukula said they provided a small glimpse of what could
happen in 2011 if things go seriously off-track. Noting the
dominance of Museveni’s ethnic group in all government
institutions, he warned of serious reprisals from groups long
excluded from power.
¶7. (C) When asked how he thought the 2011 elections would
compare to the flawed 2006 presidential contest, Mukula said
the 2011 elections would be much worse. He said Museveni’s
re-election team believed Museveni would get 10 percentage
points less than he received in 2006, giving him only 49
percent of the vote. Mukula said the recent political moves
made by Museveni – from pandering to ethnic Banyoro along
Lake Albert (ref. A), to the recognition of the Rwenzururu
Kingdom in southwestern Uganda and the decision to support
the minority Banyala’s quest for autonomy from the Buganda
Kingdom (ref. B) – were all designed to obtain the two
percentage points needed to push Museveni from 49 to 51
percent during the first round of voting in 2011.
¶8. (C) Mukula conceded that northern and central Uganda would
likely go to opposition candidates in free and fair
elections. He downplayed talk of First Lady Janet Museveni’s
presidential ambitions, saying that she preferred to remain
the power behind the throne, shielded from public criticism
and scrutiny, as she lacked the stamina and focus needed to
run a presidential campaign. Mukula said Museveni was
increasingly patterning himself after Robert Mugabe and wants
to position his son, Lieutenant Colonel Muhoozi Kainerugaba
Museveni, as his eventual successor. Muhoozi returned from
the U.S. Army Command and General Staff College in mid-2008
to assume command of the new Special Forces, a still-murky
component – or potentially entirely separate unit – of the
praetorian Presidential Guard Brigade comprised of all the
PGB’s elite, technical, and specialized non-infantry
capabilities. Noting that Muhoozi may still be too young to
mount a credible presidential bid in 2016, Mukula again
volunteered that he had presidential ambitions of his own for
¶2016.
——————-
Regional Leadership
——————-
¶9. (C) Pointing that Uganda alone among the East African
Community (EAC) does not have presidential term limits,
Mukula also said distrust of Museveni was one of the main
factors limiting any progress towards a regional political
federation. He said none of the regional presidents were
willing to jeopardize their relations with Uganda by
criticizing Museveni. Mukula added that he is a close friend
of Kenyan Prime Minister Raila Odinga – Odinga reportedly
stayed at Mukula’s home during a recent visit to Kampala –
and said Odinga keeps up a friendly public persona with
Museveni despite extreme private distrust.
———————
Uganda-U.S. Relations
———————
¶10. (C) Mukula urged the U.S. to pressure Museveni to
reinstate presidential term limits. He listed Somalia as an
example of Museveni’s efforts to remain indispensable to the
U.S. Mukula also speculated that Uganda’s support to
southern Sudan also enabled Museveni to preserve strong ties
with the U.S.
——————————————— –
Comment: Self-Interested but Still Interesting
——————————————— –
¶11. (C) While Mukula’s honesty and motives are open to
question, and his descriptions of Museveni’s internal
calculations reflect his own self-interest, he is
nevertheless one of the few NRM insiders willing to criticize
both Museveni and internal NRM dynamics. However, his
observations about Museveni’s slipping popularity within the
NRM and Vice President Bukenya’s expanding internal support
are worth noting. His views may offer some insight into the
key battleground region of eastern Uganda and Museveni’s
KAMPALA 00001096 003 OF 003
re-election strategy as the 2011 elections approach.
LANIER
(30 VIEWS)
0 Comments