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Gorden Moyo said without Mugabe there would be chaos

Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai’s political advisor Gorden Moyo said without President Robert Mugabe there would be chaos as hardliners within the Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front wanted to scuttle the Global Political Agreement.

He said though progress on the outstanding issues within the GPA was slow, the Movement for Democratic Change could live with that because its fundamental goal was a constitution that would pave the way for elections.

Moyo felt that Mugabe was key to movement in the process leading to the new constitution and elections and Tsvangirai’s working relationship with Mugabe was allowing this to go forward.

Without Mugabe, there would be chaos as the hardliners who wanted to scuttle the GPA- Patrick Chinamasa, Emmerson Mnangagwa, Gideon Gono, George Charamba and Jonathan Moyo- would take over ZANU-PF.

Moyo downplayed the role of the service chiefs saying that they had little support within the military. He thought Mugabe had control over them and he used them to intimidate.

 

Full cable:

 

Viewing cable 09HARARE806, TSVANGIRAI ADVISOR ON STATE OF PLAY

If you are new to these pages, please read an introduction on the structure of a cable as well as how to discuss them with others. See also the FAQs

Reference ID

Created

Released

Classification

Origin

09HARARE806

2009-10-07 14:45

2011-08-30 01:44

CONFIDENTIAL

Embassy Harare

VZCZCXYZ0007

OO RUEHWEB

 

DE RUEHSB #0806/01 2801445

ZNY CCCCC ZZH (CCY ADC00EC7 MSI0802-695)

O 071445Z OCT 09

FM AMEMBASSY HARARE

TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4984

INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE

RUEHAR/AMEMBASSY ACCRA 3068

RUEHDS/AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA 3180

RUEHRL/AMEMBASSY BERLIN 1609

RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 2443

RUEHDK/AMEMBASSY DAKAR 2812

RUEHKM/AMEMBASSY KAMPALA 3228

RUEHNR/AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 5675

RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC

RUZEJAA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK

RHMFISS/EUCOM POLAD VAIHINGEN GE

RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC

RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 2362

RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC

C O N F I D E N T I A L HARARE 000806

 

SIPDIS

 

C O R R E C T E D COPY TEXT

 

AF/S FOR B.WALCH

DRL FOR N. WILETT

ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU

ADDIS ABABA FOR ACSS

STATE PASS TO USAID FOR J. HARMON AND L. DOBBINS

 

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/07/2019

TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM ASEC ZI

SUBJECT: TSVANGIRAI ADVISOR ON STATE OF PLAY

 

REF: A. HARARE 753

B. HARARE 736

 

Classified By: CDA Donald Petterson for reason 1.4 (d)

——-

SUMMARY

——-

 

1. (C) Gorden Moyo, political advisor to Prime Minister

Morgan Tsvangirai, briefed the Charge October 7 on current

political developments. Moyo believes that Tsvangirai’s

hard-hitting speech at an MDC rally in Bulawayo on September

13 has led to a conciliatory attitude on the part of

President Robert Mugabe. Progress includes the naming of the

Media Commission (which will be announced in the next several

days), steps to form other commissions, a reconfigured

constitutional process, a cessation of media attacks on

Tsvangirai, and a subdued address by Mugabe at the opening of

Parliament on October 6. Moyo acknowledges that further

progress on the Global Political Agreement (GPA) will be

incremental, but emphasized that this is acceptable — the

goal is a new constitution that will lead to elections. Moyo

also discussed land invasions and disruptions of wild-life

conservancies, and sanctions. END SUMMARY.

 

——————————————— —

Tsvangirai’s Harder Line Pays Some Dividends…

——————————————— —

 

2. (C) Gorden Moyo, political advisor to Prime Minister

Morgan Tsvangirai, briefed the Charge October 7 on current

political developments. According to Moyo, Tsvangirai’s

address to between 25,000 and 30,000 MDC supporters in

Bulawayo on September 13 to celebrate the MDC’s 10th

anniversary (Ref B) had scared Mugabe. After meeting with

the MDC National Council, Tsvangirai blasted ZANU-PF and

Mugabe for not complying with the GPA, said he would not be a

whipping boy for ZANU-PF, and promised to let the people

decide whether the MDC should remain in government.

 

3. (C) Moyo told the Charge that Mugabe, who wants to delay

implementation of the GPA but not derail it, had become

concerned that the MDC might leave government and had taken

steps to appease Tsvangirai. He had met with Tsvangirai and

the two had selected Media Commission members (to be

announced in the next several days). He was helping to

facilitate selection of members for the Electoral Commission,

the Human Rights Commission, and the Anti-Corruption

Commission; selection of members should take place in the

next few weeks. He had agreed with Tsvangirai that

appointments to six media parastatals (Zimpapers, which

publishes State newspapers including The Herald; the

Broadcasting Authority of Zimbabwe (BAZ) which is responsible

for State television; Transmedia, a transmission equipment

provider; Kingstons, a bookseller; and Niw Ziana, a news

outlet) should be reviewed. (NOTE: The appointments have

drawn sharp criticism from media watchdogs. Tafataona

Mahoso, who as chair of the former Media and Information

Commission, banned the Daily News, was appointed to head the

BAZ, and military officials were appointed to all of the

boards. END NOTE.) Mugabe had directed that State media

boards. END NOTE.) Mugabe had directed that State media

cease attacks on Tsvangirai. Finally, Mugabe in his address

at the opening of Parliament on October 6 had called for

lifting of sanctions but had refrained from attacks on the

West.

 

4. (SBU) NOTE: Toward the end of his speech at the opening

of Parliament, which focused on the economy and legislative

priorities, Mugabe stated “Our country remains in a positive

stance to enter into fresh, friendly and co-operative

relations with all those countries that have been hostile to

us in the past.” In the only reference to sanctions, he said

that “…as our inclusive Government re-engages the Western

countries we expect those countries that have imposed the

illegal sanctions which have hurt and continue to hurt our

economy and the generality of our people, to remove them.”

In an above-the-fold headline on October 7, The Herald

trumpeted, “Zim ready to engage West.” END NOTE.

 

——————————————— ——-

..But the Focus is on the Constitution and Elections

——————————————— ——-

 

5. (C) Noting that progress was likely to be slow on

outstanding GPA issues, Moyo said the MDC could live with

that. The fundamental goal of the MDC was a constitution

that would pave the way for elections. Mugabe, in Moyo’s

opinion, was key to movement in the process leading up to a

new constitution and elections, and Tsvangirai’s working

relationship with Mugabe was allowing this to go forward.

Without Mugabe, there would be chaos, and hardliners who want

to scuttle the GPA — Moyo pointed to Patrick Chinamasa,

Emmerson Mnangagwa, Gideon Gono, George Charamba, and

Jonathan Moyo — would take over ZANU-PF. (NOTE: Moyo

downplayed the role of the service chiefs who he said had

little support within the military; he thought Mugabe had

control over them and they were used by him to intimidate.

END NOTE.)

 

6. (C) On the constitution, Moyo said that in discussions on

reconfiguration of the process (Ref A), the principals —

Mugabe, Tsvangirai, and Deputy Prime Minister Arthur

Mutambara — had agreed the Kariba draft would be a reference

document. If there were disagreements on a particular issue,

the parties would look to the Kariba draft to resolve it.

For example, the Kariba draft provided for immunity from

prosecution for ex-presidents. Moyo noted immunity would be

of concern to Mugabe should he leave office.

 

——————

Some Notes on Land

——————

 

7. (C) Moyo noted the reluctance of the MDC to tackle land

invasions head-on; the MDC does not want to be viewed as

supporting white farmers. He said the MDC in Cabinet was

planning to support formation of a bi-partisan group to look

at the land issue in the context of corruption. The group

would first investigate parastatals, then the mining

industry, and finally land with the goal of unearthing fake

offer letters and multiple ownerships.

 

8. (C) With regard to recent efforts of ZANU-PF officials to

make themselves partners with conservancy owners, Moyo said

he was aware of the issue and that Tsvangirai had spoken to

Vice-President Mujuru about it. He admitted this was not a

priority; the Prime Minister’s Office had too few resources

to deal with it.

 

———

SANCTIONS

———

 

9. (C) Cabinet will debate sanctions at the end of the

month, according to Moyo. He is preparing a paper to

demonstrate that sanctions and ZDERA are not responsible for

Zimbabwe’s economic plight. The MDC hopes to focus the

discussion on what it will argue is necessary for sanctions

discussion on what it will argue is necessary for sanctions

to be removed and ZDERA repealed — full compliance with the

GPA.

 

——-

COMMENT

——-

 

10. (C) Moyo confirmed what we have heard from Tsvangirai,

Tendai Biti, and others: GPA progress will be slow and the

gold ring for the MDC is a new constitution and elections.

One potentially positive area is the media. The formation of

the Media Commission will allow authorization for the Daily

News to resume publication and for Newsday (a daily version

of The Independent) to begin publication. END COMMENT.

 

PETTERSON

(31 VIEWS)

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