United States ambassador to Zimbabwe James McGhee said Agriculture Minister Joseph Made was still burying his head in the sand in terms of agricultural production after his crop forecasts differed vastly with those of the US Agency for International Development.
Made had forecast that Zimbabwe would produce about 1.2 million tonnes of maize in the 2009 agricultural year but USAID said it would only produce 500 000 tonnes.
McGhee said though Made was trying to boost production by smallholder farmers, the “elephant in the room” was the challenge of reviving high-output, surplus-generating commercial agriculture by farmers of any race.
“Until the inclusive government addresses this admittedly delicate issue, food security will remain precarious and highly weather dependent, and the agricultural sector will continue to drain rather than fill Zimbabwe’s current account,” he said.
Full cable:
Viewing cable 09HARARE479, ZIM AG MINISTER OVERESTIMATES AGRICULTURAL
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Reference ID |
Created |
Released |
Classification |
Origin |
VZCZCXRO4011
PP RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHJO RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHSB #0479/01 1600858
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 090858Z JUN 09
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4588
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE
RUEHUJA/AMEMBASSY ABUJA 2308
RUEHAR/AMEMBASSY ACCRA 2882
RUEHDS/AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA 3001
RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 2264
RUEHDK/AMEMBASSY DAKAR 2631
RUEHKM/AMEMBASSY KAMPALA 3049
RUEHNR/AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 5490
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 2173
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC
RHMFISS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC
RUEHC/DEPT OF LABOR WASHDC
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC
RUZEJAA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
RUZEHAA/CDR USEUCOM INTEL VAIHINGEN GE
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000479
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
AF/S FOR B. WALCH
AF/EPS FOR ANN BREITER
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR
STATE PASS TO USAID FOR L.DOBBINS AND J. HARMON
TREASURY FOR D. PETERS
COMMERCE FOR ROBERT TELCHIN
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU
ADDIS ABABA FOR ACSS
STATE PLEASE PASS TO N. LUSANE AND T. DAGNE
E.O. 12958: N/A
SUBJECT: ZIM AG MINISTER OVERESTIMATES AGRICULTURAL
PRODUCTION
REF: HARARE 456
——-
SUMMARY
——-
¶1. (SBU) In a meeting with CODEL Payne and Ambassador McGee
on May 30, Minister of Agriculture Joseph Made (ZANU-PF)
estimated the maize shortfall and level of food insecurity in
2009/10. He conceded the outlook was poor for the winter
wheat crop, and made a pitch for credit facilities for
smallholders and for recapitalization of the domstic
fertilizer industry. USDA’s latest production figures for
Zimbabwe are well below Made’s. Until the new government
addresses the delicate issue of reviving commercial
agriculture regardless of the race of the commercial farmer,
food security will remain precarious and highly weather
dependent, and the agricultural sector will continue to drain
rather than fill ZimbQwe’s current account. END SUMMARY.
——————————————
Good Rains, Yet Maize Shortfall Once Again
——————————————
¶2. (SBU) In a meeting with CODEL Payne and Ambassador McGee
at the Ministry of Agriculture on May 30, Minister Joseph
Made (ZANU-PF), together with four other Ministry officials,
addressed a range of issues affecting agricultural
production. Made said this year’s summer rains had been
good, but there would still be a shortfall in maize for human
consumption of 600,000-700,000 MT. He opined that food
availability at the household level would be “reasonable”
until November or December 2009.
—————————-
Credit Crunch Stymies Sector
—————————-
¶3. (SBU) Made conceded that Zimbabwe was behind schedule in
planting the winter wheat crop. He said lack of credit had
prevented farmers from getting fertilizer and purchasing
seed. Adequate seed had been available, he maintained, but
at prohibitive prices. Looking toward the next summer maize
crop, Made estimated that Zimbabwe’s smallholders would
produce 40-45 percent of the crop, but 300,000 of the 960,000
farming households would not have adequate inputs to plant
maize. The Minister made the case that if more credit were
available to small and medium-sized farmers, food security
would improve. Specifically, he asked for more food-for-work
programs rather than direct food assistance.
¶4. (SBU) On fertilizer, Made reported that the domestic
fertilizer industry could produce half to two-thirds of the
nation’s requirement if additional credit were made available
to repair or replace machinery that is now 40 to 50 years
old. Made said that if fertilizer plants were recapitalized,
Zimbabwe could produce its entire annual requirement of 600
MT fertilizer domestically.
——————–
USDA Crop Assessment
——————–
Q——————–
HARARE 00000479 002 OF 002
¶5. (SBU) Made’s estimates of the 2008/09 maize crop are–no
surprise–on the high side. The government’s Agricultural
Technical and Extension Services agency (AGRITEX) estimated
that 1,521,000 ha of maize were planted at a yield of 0.82
MT/ha (three times higher yield than its yield estimate in
2007/2008), for a total crop of over 1.2 million MT. USDA’s
2009 Zimbabwe Crop Assessment, which utilizes satellite
imagery and field work, suggests that 1,144,000 ha were
planted and yield was 0.44 tons/ha for a total crop of about
a half million metric tons. The USDA report, released on
June 2, took into account the acute shortages of seed,
fertilizer and fuel, along with late planting. (NOTE: For
comparison sake, in the 1990s, commercial farmers strove to
belong to the celebrated and now defunct “Ten Tonne Club” of
maize farmers who grew 10 MT/ha. END NOTE.) Additionally,
Made’s assertion of “reasonable” food availability until
November or December is not applicable to the population as a
whole; there are pockets of vulnerability and some households
will require food assistance as early as three months from
now, with the numbers increasing thereafter. On winter wheat
estimates, the Ministry of Agriculture revealed at a
technical meeting on June 4 that only 4,900 ha of wheat had
been planted to date. Wheat planting should have come to an
end by May 10 for best yields.
——-
COMMENT
——-
¶6. (SBU) The meeting with Made was cordial. He accompanied
the delegation and Ambassador McGee to the State House
meeting with President Mugabe (reftel). He chatted
nostalgically with econoff about his years of study at the
University of Wisconsin, and re-appeared the next day on a
Sunday afternoon to bid the CODEL farewell at the airport.
As warm and welcoming as he was, however, on agricultural
production and the way forward with agriculture his head is
still in the sand. Credit facilities for smallholder growers
certainly have the potential to improve production, and there
is no doubt that Zimbabwe’s fertilizer companies are
desperate for re-capitalization. But the elephant in the
room is the challenge of reviving high-output,
surplus-generating commercial agriculture by farmers of any
race. Until the inclusive government addresses this
admittedly delicate issue, food security will remain
precarious and highly weather dependent, and the agricultural
sector will continue to drain rather than fill Zimbabwe’s
current account. END COMMENT.
¶7. (U) NOTE: This cable has not been cleared by Congressman
Payne. END NOTE.
MCGEE
(16 VIEWS)
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