MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai had called on Zimbabweans to "rise up in your millions and take part in nationwide peaceful protest marches for democracy and good governance", and to stay away from work for a week.
Sullivan was worried about what would happen to the stay-away if there was a government crackdown.
“Word travels fast though, and a harsh crackdown in one suburb could quell peoples' willingness to take to the streets in others.
“The MDC has a very limited track record of getting people to march, and it is unclear whether general frustration and desperation is enough to make notoriously patient Zimbabweans take to the streets in huge numbers,” he said.
Full cable:
Viewing cable 03HARARE1081, MDC OFFICIALLY ANNOUNCES NATIONWIDE PROTESTS WEEK
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
301013Z May 03
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 001081
SIPDIS
NSC FOR SENIOR DIRECTOR FRAZER
PARIS FOR C.NEARY
LONDON FOR C. GURNEY
NAIROBI FOR T.PFLAUMER
BANGKOK FOR WYN DAYTON
DS/OP/AF
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/29/2008
SUBJECT: MDC OFFICIALLY ANNOUNCES NATIONWIDE PROTESTS WEEK
OF JUNE 2-6; COULD BE SOONER ACCORDING TO INSIDER
REF: A. HARARE 1076
¶B. HARARE 1058
Classified By: Political Officer Peggy Blackford for reasons 1.5 b/d
¶1. (C) SUMMARY. The MDC officially announced that protests
including demonstrations would begin June 2 and run
throughout the week. However, in contrast to the official
MDC call for mass action next week, MDC Special Presidential
Advisor Gandi Mudzingwa confided that the party hoped to move
up its timetable, turn out large crowds for short
demonstrations in the high density areas over the weekend,
and avoid confrontations by catching the GOZ off guard. He
indicated that the MDC is now confident that most police and
army are sympathetic to the MDC cause and will remain
neutral. If the demonstrations are a success, the MDC will
simply declare victory on Monday and will mostly limit next
week's action to a stayaway. The MDC hopes that these actions
will sway additional ZANU-PF loyalists to the view that a
negotiated change is essential. So far Mudzingwa is the only
one to suggest that action will begin before that Monday
deadline. Embassy observers will remain alert to reports of
protest over the weekend but are dubious that significant
action will take place before the announced Monday start
date. END SUMMARY
¶2. (U) In an official statement issued May 29, MDC
President Morgan Tsvangirai cited recent political and
economic woes, and the inability of the Mugabe government to
deal with these. He appealed to all Zimbabweans throughout
the country to participate in on-going prayer meetings, and
during the week of June 2 to June 6, to "rise up in your
millions and take part in nationwide peaceful protest marches
for DEMOCRACY and GOOD GOVERNANCE", and to stayaway from work
for the week. He emphasized MDC's commitment to non-violence
and urged protesters to be peaceful even if provoked.
¶3. (C) PolOffs met Special Presidential Advisor Gandi
Mudzingwa later on May 29 and queried him about specific MDC
plans. Official announcements and conversations with other
MDC officials including MDC president Tsvangirai reported
reftels have implied that demonstrations would take place on
Monday or later next week and would concentrate on the city
center. In contrast, Mudzingwa said that the MDC was adopting
a different strategy which it hoped would demonstrate victory
early. The party hopes to organize demonstrators in Harare
to protest over the weekend rather than waiting until next
week. The demonstrations would take place in the high
density areas, particularly the western suburbs, on Saturday
and Sunday. They would be called at the last minute and
would be kept to perhaps a half a hour so that GOZ would have
to scramble to react. If the police turned out in massive
numbers in one area, the party plans to shift the
demonstration to another location. This is a technique they
used this week at prayer meetings. When the police showed up
to prevent a crowd from gathering, MDC organizers were able
to quickly pass the word and move the meeting to a different
location. If the demonstrations go well, the MDC will
declare victory and limit activities next week in Harare to
primarily a stayaway, though Mudzingwa did not rule out
further demonstrations. Outside of Harare however, protests
are very likely to run into next week. According to
Mudzingwa, the objective of this mass action is to erode the
confidence of ZANU-PF supporters and convince them that the
status quo cannot hold. Asked how these hit and run tactics
would effect press coverage, Mudzingwa expressed confidence
that they had reliable contacts in the press who would be on
hand where needed.
¶4. (C) On the issue of police reaction, Mudzingwa said
that they were confident that the majority were now either
sympathetic to the MDC position or determined to remain
neutral if at all possible. He was somewhat concerned about
a few special units who have apparently received riot
training since March or that existing unit commanders would
be replaced by GOZ militants, possibly war veterans.
Mudzingwa said he thought the MDC's propaganda aimed at the
army, as well as private conversations with selected army
officers, had worked and that the greater part of the army
was inclined to remain neutral - though all uncertainties on
this front had not been eliminated. On the whole however, he
believed that the MDC strategy would avoid confrontations by
assembling and disbursing too quickly for the GOZ forces to
be a problem.
¶5. (C) Comment: In theory Mudzingwa's plan sounds viable
but it relies heavily on very good organization and
communication, and the willingness of sympathetic police and
local authorities to remain apolitical even if they get
advance notice that a demonstration is imminent. Its
avoidance of marching/demonstrations near State House or city
center would be less neuralgic to authorities. The plan also
relies on holding demonstrations in distant locales and
spreading militant security forces too thin to respond
effectively. Word travels fast though, and a harsh crackdown
in one suburb could quell peoples' willingness to take to the
streets in others. The MDC has a very limited track record
of getting people to march, and it is unclear whether general
frustration and desperation is enough to make notoriously
patient Zimbabweans take to the streets in huge numbers.
¶6. (C) In light of the fact that to date Mudzingwa, though
very well-placed in the MDC hierarchy, is the only source to
report any action is planned before Monday, Embassy observers
remain skeptical that any major events will take place over
the weekend. End Comment.
SULLIVAN
