Farmers say Mugabe does not want to destroy agriculture but to keep them out of politics

Some members of the Commercial Farmers Union said they did not believe that President Robert Mugabe’s goal was to destroy commercial farming but rather it was to intimidate them so that they would be so traumatised that they would never support an opposition party.

According to a diplomatic cable released by Wikileaks, the government’s fast-track resettlement programme was aimed at punishing white commercial farmers for their perceived support of the Movement for Democratic Change.

The MDC itself viewed the exercise as a political tactic by Mugabe to restore his flagging popularity among the poor and the landless black majority.

United States embassy officials said: “A view held by some members of the CFU executive body, as well as individual commercial farmers we have talked to, is that Mugabe's goal is not to drive all white commercial farmers from Zimbabwe. Rather, it is to drive an undetermined number of white commercial farmers out of Zimbabwe, and thereby obtain their land for resettlement without paying any compensation for the land.

“At the same time, Mugabe wants a core group of white commercial farmers, whose operations will bring in desperately needed hard currency, to remain in Zimbabwe.  The thinking goes that this remaining group of white commercial farmers will have been so traumatized by the current "fast-track" resettlement exercise, that they will never again support an opposition party.”

 

Full cable:

 

Viewing cable 01HARARE765, THE CURRENT STATE AND PROJECTED CONSEQUENCES

If you are new to these pages, please read an introduction on the structure of a cable as well as how to discuss them with others. See also the FAQs

Reference ID

Created

Released

Classification

Origin

01HARARE765

2001-02-16 11:00

2011-08-30 01:44

CONFIDENTIAL

Embassy Harare

This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

 

161100Z Feb 01

 

 

CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ3025

 

PAGE 01       HARARE 00765 01 OF 03 161059Z

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DODE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00   EB-00   EUR-00   VC-00   H-01

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P-00     SP-00   IRM-00   STR-00   TRSE-00 USIE-00 BBG-00

PMB-00   DSCC-00 PRM-01   DRL-02   G-00     NFAT-00 SAS-00

/009W

------------------C6946B 161059Z /38

FM AMEMBASSY HARARE

TO SECSTATE WASHDC 8240

INFO NSC WASHDC

SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY

AMEMBASSY NAIROBI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 000765

 

SIPDIS

 

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JFRAZER

LONDON FOR CGURNEY

PARIS FOR BWILLIAMS

NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER

PASS USAID FOR AFR/SD - DWELLER, AFR/SA - CPALMA,

NNEWMAN, AA/AFR

 

E.O. 12958: DECL 02/16/11

TAGS: EAGR PGOV PHUM EAID ZI

SUBJECT: THE CURRENT STATE AND PROJECTED CONSEQUENCES

CONFIDENTIAL

 

 

PAGE 02       HARARE 00765 01 OF 03 161059Z

OF THE "FAST-TRACK" PROGRAM

 

REFS: A. HARARE 644, B. 00 HARARE 7271,

C. 00 HARARE 6662, D. 00 HARARE 6190

 

CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D' AFFAIRES EARL M. IRVING FOR

REASONS 1.5 (B/D).

 

1. (C) SUMMARY: THE GOVERNMENT OF ZIMBABWE (GOZ)

ANNOUNCED ON JANUARY 15 THE START OF PHASE II OF THE

"FAST-TRACK" LAND RESETTLEMENT PROGRAM, AIMED AT

RESETTLING A SEGMENT OF THE POPULATION AS COMMERCIAL

FARMERS. WHILE THIS PROGRAM APPEARS TO BE BASED ON A

PREVIOUS MODEL DEVELOPED IN CONSULTATION WITH DONORS,

MODEL A2, THE GOZ HAS NOT STATED THIS PUBLICLY AND FEW

SPECIFIC DETAILS OF THE NEW PHASE II PROGRAM HAVE BEEN

MADE PUBLIC. MEANWHILE, PHASE I OF THE "FAST-TRACK"

LAND RESETTLEMENT PROGRAM, AIMED AT RELOCATING PEASANTS

FROM THE RURAL COMMUNAL LANDS ONTO COMMERCIAL FARMS, HAS

BEEN ANYTHING BUT SUCCESSFUL. VIOLENT ASSAULTS BY "WAR

VETS" CONTINUE AGAINST FARMERS AND FARM WORKERS ON

ZIMBABWE'S OCCUPIED FARMS ON A WEEKLY BASIS. THE GOZ

HAS STEPPED UP ATTACKS ON THE JUDICIARY OVER ITS RULINGS

AGAINST THE "FAST-TRACK" PROGRAM AND FARM OCCUPATIONS.

MANY COMMERCIAL FARMERS WE HAVE TALKED TO BELIEVE THAT

PRESIDENT MUGABE'S GOAL IS NOT TO DESTROY COMMERCIAL

FARMING, BUT TO INTIMIDATE WHITE COMMERCIAL FARMERS SO

THAT THOSE WHO REMAIN IN ZIMBABWE WILL NEVER AGAIN

BECOME INVOLVED IN POLITICS. AS A RESULT OF THE FARM

OCCUPATIONS, THE "FAST-TRACK" PROGRAM'S SHORTFALLS, THE

ECONOMIC CRISIS, AND POOR RAINFALL IN SOME REGIONS OF

CONFIDENTIAL

 

PAGE 03       HARARE 00765 01 OF 03 161059Z

ZIMBABWE, THE GOZ WILL NEED TO IMPORT LARGE QUANTITIES

OF WHEAT, AND POSSIBLY MAIZE, BY THE END OF 2001, AT A

TIME WHEN IT WILL HAVE LITTLE HARD CURRENCY TO PAY FOR

THEM. END SUMMARY.

 

--------------------------------------------

PHASE 2 - "IF AT FIRST YOU DON'T SUCCEED..."

--------------------------------------------

 

2. (C) ON JANUARY 15 THE GOZ ANNOUNCED THROUGH A FULL-

PAGE AD IN THE GOZ-CONTROLLED "THE HERALD" THE BEGINNING

OF PHASE II OF "FAST-TRACK," WITH A STATED GOAL OF

DEVELOPING A NEW GENERATION OF INDIGENOUS SMALL-,

MEDIUM-, AND LARGE-SCALE COMMERCIAL FARMERS. PHASE II

APPEARS TO BE BASED ON A PLAN TO DEVELOP INDIGENOUS

COMMERCIAL FARMERS, WHICH WAS DEVELOPED BY THE GOZ IN

CONJUNCTION WITH DONORS IN 1998 AND CALLED MODEL A2.

UNDER PHASE II, THE FARM SIZES WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE

TYPE OF FARMING TO BE PURSUED, AND THE AREA'S RAINFALL

CLASSIFICATION. PHASE II IS AIMED AT ZIMBABWEANS WHO

HAVE A PROCLIVITY FOR COMMERCIAL FARMING AND HAVE ASSETS

THAT THEY CAN DEVOTE TO THIS ENDEAVOR. THE GOAL OF

PHASE I WAS TO GIVE SMALL PLOTS OF LAND TO CURRENT

COMMUNAL LAND SUBSISTENCE FARMERS. THE GOZ HAS ALREADY

DECLARED PHASE II TO BE A ROARING SUCCESS BASED ON THE

THOUSANDS OF ZIMBABWEANS WHO HAVE BESIEGED THE MINISTRY

OF LAND FOR THEIR FREE APPLICATIONS. YET, TO OUR

KNOWLEDGE, THE GOZ HAS NOT MADE PUBLIC ANY DETAILS AS TO

THE SPECIFIC CRITERIA THAT WILL BE USED TO AWARD LAND TO

BENEFICIARIES UNDER PHASE II, OR ANY OTHER SPECIFICS ON

HOW PHASE II WILL BE IMPLEMENTED. IN ADDITION, THE GOZ

CONFIDENTIAL

 

PAGE 04       HARARE 00765 01 OF 03 161059Z

HAS FEW RESOURCES TO HANDLE EVEN THE MOST RUDIMENTARY

ADMINISTRATIVE DETAILS OF PHASE II, LET ALONE TO PROVIDE

OTHER SUPPORT, INCLUDING SUBSIDIZED FINANCING, THAT THE

FUTURE INDIGENOUS COMMERCIAL FARMERS WILL NEED UNDER THE

PROGRAM.

 

--------------------------------------------

PHASE I OF "FAST-TRACK" A RESOUNDING FAILURE

--------------------------------------------

 

3. (C) PHASE I OF THE "FAST-TRACK" RESETTLEMENT PROGRAM,

WHICH HAS PRINCIPALLY ENTAILED THE ILLEGAL OCCUPATION OF

COMMERCIAL FARMS BY "WAR VETS" AND RURAL PEASANTS, IS,

BY MOST ACCOUNTS A FAILURE. THE GOZ MINISTER OF LANDS,

AGRICULTURE AND RURAL RESETTLEMENT, JOSEPH MADE, HAS

PUBLICLY STATED THAT 2597 FARMS TOTALING 5.9 MILLION

HECTARES HAVE BEEN GAZETTED FOR COMPULSORY ACQUISITION.

MOREOVER, HE HAS CLAIMED THAT 86,000 FAMILIES HAVE

ALREADY BEEN RESETTLED ON THREE MILLION HECTARES OF

COMMERCIAL FARMLAND. THESE ARE WIDELY BELIEVED TO BE

EXTREMELY INFLATED FIGURES. THE MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC

CHANGE (MDC) OPPOSITION STATES THAT AT MOST 5,000

FAMILIES HAVE BEEN RESETTLED TO DATE. MINISTER MADE HAS

ADMITTED THAT THE GOZ HAS ONLY PROVIDED TILLAGE SERVICE

ON 4,666 HECTARES OF LAND ACQUIRED UNDER "FAST-TRACK".

 

CONFIDENTIAL

 

CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ3028

 

PAGE 01       HARARE 00765 02 OF 03 161100Z

ACTION AF-00

 

INFO LOG-00   NP-00   AGRE-00 AID-00   AMAD-00 CIAE-00 COME-00

DODE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00   EB-00   EUR-00   VC-00   H-01

TEDE-00 INR-00   IO-00   L-00     VCE-00   AC-01   NSAE-00

OIC-02   OMB-01   OPIC-01 PA-00   PM-00   PRS-00   ACE-00

P-00     SP-00   IRM-00   STR-00   TRSE-00 USIE-00 BBG-00

PMB-00   DSCC-00 PRM-01   DRL-02   G-00     NFAT-00 SAS-00

/009W

------------------C69483 161100Z /38

R 161100Z FEB 01

FM AMEMBASSY HARARE

TO SECSTATE WASHDC 8241

INFO NSC WASHDC

SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY

AMEMBASSY NAIROBI

 

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 HARARE 000765

 

SIPDIS

 

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JFRAZER

LONDON FOR CGURNEY

PARIS FOR BWILLIAMS

NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER

PASS USAID FOR AFR/SD - DWELLER, AFR/SA - CPALMA,

NNEWMAN, AA/AFR

 

E.O. 12958: DECL 02/16/11

TAGS: EAGR PGOV PHUM EAID ZI

SUBJECT: THE CURRENT STATE AND PROJECTED CONSEQUENCES

CONFIDENTIAL

 

PAGE 02       HARARE 00765 02 OF 03 161100Z

OF THE "FAST-TRACK" PROGRAM

 

THE GOZ MINISTER OF FINANCE AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT,

SIMBA MAKONI, TOLD AN EMBASSY FSN INFORMALLY THAT ONLY

2,000 HECTARES OUT OF 200,000 ACQUIRED UNDER "FAST-

TRACK" HAVE BEEN UTILIZED THIS AGRICULTURAL SEASON.

MINISTER OF RURAL RESOURCES AND WATER DEVELOPMENT, JOYCE

MUJURU, STATED IN THE JANUARY 20 GOZ-CONTROLLED "THE

HERALD" NEWSPAPER THAT THE "FAST-TRACK" PROGRAM HAS

SUFFERED FROM A POOR TURNOUT OF BENEFICIARIES. THE CFU

AND INDIVIDUAL COMMERCIAL FARMERS HAVE TOLD US THAT MANY

OF THE PEOPLE "RESETTLED" UNDER PHASE I HAVE LEFT THE

COMMERCIAL FARMS AND GONE BACK TO THE COMMUNAL LANDS

AFTER IT BECAME CLEAR THAT THEY WERE GETTING NO

ASSISTANCE FROM THE GOZ. THE MINISTER OF LOCAL

GOVERNMENT, PUBLIC WORKS AND NATIONAL HOUSING, IGNATIUS

CHOMBO, HAS CONFIRMED THIS FACT BY STATING THAT MANY OF

THE PEOPLE WHO HAVE BEEN "RESETTLED" HAVE RENEGED ON

THEIR COMMITMENT TO TAKE OWNERSHIP OF THE LAND THEY HAVE

BEEN GIVEN AND HAVE GONE BACK TO THEIR HOMES. THE

SECRETARY-GENERAL OF THE GENERAL AGRICULTURE AND

 

SIPDIS

PLANTATION WORKERS UNION OF ZIMBABWE (GAPWUZ), PHILIP

MUNYANYI, CLAIMS THAT ONLY 318 FORMER FARM WORKERS'

FAMILIES HAVE BEEN RESETTLED UNDER PHASE I, OUT OF A

FARM LABOR FORCE OF 500,000.

 

-------------------------------

VIOLENCE CONTINUES ON THE FARMS

-------------------------------

 

4. (C) AS OF THE BEGINNING OF FEBRUARY, THE COMMERCIAL

CONFIDENTIAL

 

PAGE 03       HARARE 00765 02 OF 03 161100Z

FARMERS UNION (CFU) ESTIMATES THAT APPROXIMATELY 1100

COMMERCIAL FARMS REMAIN OCCUPIED. THE LEVEL OF

OCCUPATION VARIES, WITH SOME FARMS HAVING ONLY A HANDFUL

OF "WAR VETS", WHILE OTHERS HOST A HUNDRED OR MORE

SQUATTERS. EACH WEEK THERE ARE NEW REPORTS OF

COMMERCIAL FARMERS BEING THREATENED OR ASSAULTED, AND OF

THEIR FARM WORKERS BEING BEATEN AND EVICTED FROM THEIR

HOUSING. A NEW TACTIC BEING USED BY "WAR VETS" TO

HARASS FARMERS AND EXTRACT A CASH FLOW IS TO DRIVE A

FARMER'S CATTLE INTO AN AREA WHERE SQUATTERS HAVE

PLANTED MAIZE, AND THEN DEMAND EXORBITANT MONETARY

COMPENSATION FOR THE DAMAGE DONE TO THE MAIZE BY THE

CATTLE. THE CFU REPORTS THAT POLICE GENERALLY RESPOND

TO THE MORE SERIOUS CONFRONTATIONS AND VIOLENCE, BUT DO

NOTHING TO ARREST THE PERPETRATORS OF VIOLENCE OR PURSUE

CRIMES SUCH AS THE THEFT OF FARM PROPERTY. THERE HAS

BEEN NO PROGRESS BY THE POLICE IN INVESTIGATIONS OF THE

KILLINGS OF SIX WHITE COMMERCIAL FARMERS AND FIVE FARM

WORKERS SINCE LAST FEBRUARY.

 

----------------------------------

BLAME THE FAILURE ON THE JUDICIARY

----------------------------------

 

5. (C) MEANWHILE, THE GOZ LABELS THE JUDICIARY AS THE

VILLAIN RESPONSIBLE FOR DELAYING THE SUCCESS OF "FAST-

TRACK." IT CONTINUES TO IGNORE THE DECEMBER SUPREME

COURT RULING DECLARING THE CURRENT "FAST-TRACK" EXERCISE

UNCONSTITUTIONAL, AS WELL AS ALL OTHER COURT RULINGS

AGAINST "FAST-TRACK." FURTHERMORE, THE GOZ IS STILL

IGNORING COURT ORDERS FOR THE POLICE TO REMOVE ILLEGAL

CONFIDENTIAL

 

PAGE 04      HARARE 00765 02 OF 03 161100Z

OCCUPIERS AND RESTORE THE RULE OF LAW ON COMMERCIAL

FARMS. THOUGH THE GOZ FORCED THE HEAD SUPREME COURT

JUSTICE TO RESIGN LAST WEEK (REF A), PROBLEMS EXIST AT

ALL LEVELS OF THE JUDICIAL SYSTEM. LAST WEEK THE

ADMINISTRATIVE COURT DISMISSED THE GOZ'S REQUEST FOR

CONFIRMATION ORDERS ON THE ACQUISITION OF TWO COMMERCIAL

FARMS UNTIL THE GOZ PRODUCES A WORKABLE LAND REFORM

PROGRAM. THE CFU HAS TOLD US THAT AS OF THE BEGINNING

FEBRUARY, NO FARMS THAT HAVE BEEN IDENTIFIED FOR

COMPULSORY ACQUISITION BY THE GOZ SINCE "FAST-TRACK"

BEGAN IN JUNE 2000 HAVE YET BEEN LEGALLY ACQUIRED BY THE

GOZ. THE CFU ALSO TOLD US THAT THE GOZ IS NOT MEETING

DEADLINES FOR THE DELIVERY OF THE VARIOUS LEGAL NOTICES

REQUIRED IN THE COMPULSORY ACQUISITION PROCESS UNDER THE

LAND ACQUISITION ACT.

 

---------------------------------------

WHAT IS THE GOAL OF THIS WHOLE EXERCISE?

---------------------------------------

 

6. (C) IN ADDITION TO THE "FAST-TRACK" RESETTLEMENT

PROGRAM BEING VIEWED BY THE OPPOSITION MDC AS A

POLITICAL TACTIC BY MUGABE TO RESTORE HIS FLAGGING

POPULARITY AMONG THE POOR AND LANDLESS BLACK MAJORITY,

IT IS ALSO VIEWED BY THE CFU AND COMMERCIAL FARMERS AS A

 

CONFIDENTIAL

 

CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ3034

 

PAGE 01       HARARE 00765 03 OF 03 161100Z

ACTION AF-00

 

INFO LOG-00   NP-00   AGRE-00 AID-00   AMAD-00 CIAE-00 COME-00

DODE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00   EB-00   EUR-00   VC-00   H-01

TEDE-00 INR-00   IO-00   L-00     VCE-00   AC-01   NSAE-00

OIC-02   OMB-01   OPIC-01 PA-00   PM-00   PRS-00   ACE-00

P-00     SP-00   IRM-00   STR-00   TRSE-00 USIE-00 BBG-00

PMB-00   DSCC-00 PRM-01   DRL-02   G-00     NFAT-00 SAS-00

/009W

------------------C69495 161100Z /38

R 161100Z FEB 01

FM AMEMBASSY HARARE

TO SECSTATE WASHDC 8242

INFO NSC WASHDC

SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY

AMEMBASSY NAIROBI

 

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 03 HARARE 000765

 

SIPDIS

 

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JFRAZER

LONDON FOR CGURNEY

PARIS FOR BWILLIAMS

NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER

PASS USAID FOR AFR/SD - DWELLER, AFR/SA - CPALMA,

NNEWMAN, AA/AFR

 

E.O. 12958: DECL 02/16/11

TAGS: EAGR PGOV PHUM EAID ZI

SUBJECT: THE CURRENT STATE AND PROJECTED CONSEQUENCES

CONFIDENTIAL

 

PAGE 02       HARARE 00765 03 OF 03 161100Z

OF THE "FAST-TRACK" PROGRAM

 

WAY TO PUNISH THEM FOR THEIR PERCEIVED SUPPORT FOR THE

OPPOSITION. A VIEW HELD BY SOME MEMBERS OF THE CFU

EXECUTIVE BODY, AS WELL AS INDIVIDUAL COMMERCIAL FARMERS

WE HAVE TALKED TO, IS THAT MUGABE'S GOAL IS NOT TO DRIVE

ALL WHITE COMMERCIAL FARMERS FROM ZIMBABWE. RATHER, IT

IS TO DRIVE AN UNDETERMINED NUMBER OF WHITE COMMERCIAL

FARMERS OUT OF ZIMBABWE, AND THEREBY OBTAIN THEIR LAND

FOR RESETTLEMENT WITHOUT PAYING ANY COMPENSATION FOR THE

LAND. AT THE SAME TIME, MUGABE WANTS A CORE GROUP OF

WHITE COMMERCIAL FARMERS, WHOSE OPERATIONS WILL BRING IN

DESPERATELY NEEDED HARD CURRENCY, TO REMAIN IN ZIMBABWE.

THE THINKING GOES THAT THIS REMAINING GROUP OF WHITE

COMMERCIAL FARMERS WILL HAVE BEEN SO TRAUMATIZED BY THE

CURRENT "FAST-TRACK" RESETTLEMENT EXERCISE, THAT THEY

WILL NEVER AGAIN SUPPORT AN OPPOSITION PARTY.

 

--------------------------------

A CONSEQUENCE IS FOOD INSECURITY

--------------------------------

 

7. (C) THE OCCUPATIONS, THE ECONOMY, AND THE LACK OF

RAINFALL IN SOME AGRICULTURAL AREAS THIS SEASON HAVE ALL

CONTRIBUTED TO A SCENARIO WHERE THE GOZ MAY WELL HAVE TO

IMPORT LARGE QUANTITIES OF GRAIN AS EARLY AS AUGUST. AS

A RESULT OF THE FARM OCCUPATIONS AND UNCERTAINTIES

RELATED TO "FAST-TRACK", THE GOZ AGRITEX EARLY WARNING

UNIT REPORTED THAT THE TOTAL AREA UNDER CROPS IS DOWN BY

22 PERCENT FROM LAST YEAR, INCLUDING A 22 PERCENT DROP

IN THE AREA PLANTED IN MAIZE. THE CFU HAS TOLD US THAT

CONFIDENTIAL

 

PAGE 03       HARARE 00765 03 OF 03 161100Z

COMMERCIAL FARMERS HAVE PLANTED 48 PERCENT LESS MAIZE

(REFS B, C, AND D), AND THAT THE HECTARAGE PLANTED IN

WINTER WHEAT WILL ALSO BE REDUCED DRAMATICALLY BECAUSE

OF THE FARM OCCUPATIONS. A RECENT ANALYSIS BY THE

COMMERCIAL BANK OF ZIMBABWE ESTIMATES THAT THE GOZ WILL

NEED TO IMPORT BETWEEN 70,000 AND 130,000 METRIC TONS OF

WHEAT BY JULY. AGRITEX HAS ALSO REPORTED THAT RAINFALL

HAS BEEN BELOW AVERAGE OVER MOST OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH

THE FIRST WEEK OF FEBRUARY, WITH THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF

THE COUNTRY IN NEAR DROUGHT CONDITION. BOTH AGRITEX AND

THE USAID FEWS/NET ZIMBABWE HAVE REPORTED THAT COMMUNAL

FARMERS IN CERTAIN SOUTHERN DISTRICTS HAVE WRITTEN OFF

THEIR MAIZE CROPS THIS SEASON DUE TO THE LACK OF

RAINFALL. IN ADDITION, DUE TO PRICE HIKES, COMMUNAL

FARMERS NATIONWIDE ARE HARD PRESSED TO AFFORD THE MID-

SEASON FERTILIZER THEIR CROPS NEED. THE JANUARY USAID

FEWS/NET ZIMBABWE MONTHLY FOOD SECURITY UPDATE ESTIMATES

THAT IF ZIMBABWE FAILS TO RECEIVE SUFFICIENT RAINFALL IN

ITS BREADBASKET REGION DURING THE REMAINDER OF FEBRUARY,

A MAIZE PRODUCTION DEFICIT IS POSSIBLE THAT COULD

REQUIRE THE GOZ TO IMPORT BETWEEN 200,000 AND 400,000

METRIC TONS OF MAIZE BY THE END OF 2001.

 

8. (C) COMMENT: IT IS BECOMING MORE CLEAR THAT AN

AGRICULTURAL DISASTER IS LOOMING IN ZIMBABWE. WHILE

MUGABE MAY STILL REAP POLITICAL BENEFITS FROM THE "FAST-

TRACK" RESETTLEMENT EXERCISE AMONG POOR AND LANDLESS

ZIMBABWEANS, AND WITH PHASE II, CUT INTO THE MDC'S CORE

URBAN SUPPORT, IT IS CLEAR THAT FROM AN ECONOMIC

PERSPECTIVE THE "FAST-TRACK" RESETTLEMENT PROGRAM HAS

SUCCEEDED ONLY AT DISRUPTING PRODUCTION ON THE COUNTRY'S

CONFIDENTIAL

 

PAGE 04       HARARE 00765 03 OF 03 161100Z

COMMERCIAL FARMS, WHILE PROVIDING NO VIABLE SOLUTION TO

THE NEEDS OF LANDLESS PEOPLE AND THOSE LIVING ON

MARGINAL LAND IN THE COMMUNAL AREAS. BASED ON THE TRACK

RECORD OF PHASE I, WE DOUBT THAT PHASE II WILL BE ANY

MORE SUCCESSFUL AT ITS GOAL OF DEVELOPING "INSTANT"

INDIGENOUS COMMERCIAL FARMERS. HAVING DRIVEN AWAY

NEARLY ALL FOREIGN INVESTMENT AND MOST FOREIGN TOURISTS,

THE GOZ DOES NOT AND PROBABLY WILL NOT HAVE THE HARD

CURRENCY NEEDED TO PAY FOR GRAIN IMPORTS LATER THIS

YEAR. THE PROJECTED HARD CURRENCY EARNINGS FROM THE

SALE OF THE NATION'S TOBACCO CROP BEGINNING IN APRIL

HAVE ALREADY BEEN SPENT OR ALLOCATED BY THE GOZ, LEAVING

LITTLE FOR GRAIN IMPORTS. EVEN IF THERE IS AN IMMEDIATE

ABOUT-FACE ON THE GOZ'S LAND AND ECONOMIC POLICIES, A

DEVELOPMENT WE DO NOT FORESEE, THE GOZ WILL VERY LIKELY

NEED EXTERNAL ASSISTANCE TO FEED ITS PEOPLE BY THE END

OF 2001. END COMMENT.

 

IRVING

 

CONFIDENTIAL

 

>

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