Mugabe a cash cow!

President Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe is an industry. A money spinning industry. A cash cow. If Mugabe Inc. were listed on the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange, it would probably be one of the top performers, competing with mining giant Rio Tinto whose share price has risen by 4 471 percent since the beginning of the year beating inflation which stands at 455 percent nearly 10 times.

Mugabe and Rio Tinto have one thing in common. They are both unpredictable. Rio Tinto, like its other gold producing counterpart, Falgold, has been complaining about viability problems over the past two years, yet it has continued to post record profits. Mugabe has been presiding over an economic crisis, and a country on the brink of collapse, for nearly six years. He has been reported to have collapsed on several occasions, with some reports saying it was a daily occurrence at State House, but the old man still globe trots whenever he can beat the international sanctions imposed against him by the European Union, the Commonwealth and the United States.

Mugabe, who has presided over Zimbabwe for the past 23 years, is now one of the longest serving leaders in the world (rank) but he has not given any indication about when he will retire despite intense pressure both from within Zimbabwe and internationally. Several polls have indicated that most Zimbabweans want him to retire, including those from his ruling ZANU-PF, but he continues to defy the odds.

But it looks not everyone who is calling for Mugabe to retire is genuine. His demise, like the advent of independence in 1980 and the end of apartheid in South Africa a decade ago, would see several organisations closing down, and thousands of workers losing their jobs. Though he has become a pain in the neck for most organisations, Mugabe is the raison d'etre for the existence of several organisations. Some of the organisations calling on him to step down could merely be doing so because that is what they are paid to do but deep down they know that their own survival is dependent upon his continued stay.

Mugabe's ironfisted, dictatorial rule has seen the sprouting of several human rights organisations which would have no reason to exist if he exits from power. Several journalists whose only major story has been Mugabe, or who rose to fame after being "harassed" by Mugabe, will become irrelevant once he is gone. According to one analyst, a lot of people that have entered into the fray are in fact spoilers who are thriving on Mugabe's bad image. And they will do anything to make sure that there is no quick solution to Zimbabwe's problem.

Mugabe's alleged misrule saw the creation of the Crisis in Zimbabwe Coalition in 2001. The organisation says it represents more than 500 civic organisations, 250 of which are directly affiliated to the Crisis Committee. The organisations are grouped under nine major coalitions which include, the constitution under the National Constitutional Assembly, election support under the Zimbabwe Election Supervisory Network, labour under the Zimbabwe Congress of Trade Unions, media under the Media Institute of Southern Africa, transparency under Transparency International Zimbabwe, students under the Zimbabwe National Students Union, human rights under the Zimbabwe Human Rights Forum, women and social, economic and policy issues.

It is not clear whether the coalition would serve any purpose if Mugabe goes though individual organisations could survive. Though its mission seems to go beyond the crisis, donor fatigue could affect the organisation as there are already too many organisations fighting the same cause. The coalition says its mission is to become the nerve centre that helps civil society coalitions with strategic planning and coordination of national programmes. It says it will strive to respond timeously to government positions regarding various key policy areas and will share ideas and information for use by civil society groups in the articulation of credible, alternative and practical views.

It will strive to ensure the rapid development of a participatory democracy in Zimbabwe in areas of health, governance and parliament. "We believe in the principles of pluralism and diversity in politics," it says. Apparently though it backs the opposition Movement for Democratic Change most of the time, as the opposition is often denied a platform to air its views by the ruling ZANU-PF, it has condemned some moves taken by the MDC such as the mass stay-aways saying it appeared their purpose was to replace ZANU-PF with the MDC, yet the very reason why the MDC was formed was to bring about democracy and an acceptable national constitution.

But like most non-governmental organisations, the survival of the coalition will depend on who owns the organisation. Most of the civic organisations in Zimbabwe are donor-funded which means that once donors have achieved their objective and stop the funding, the organisation goes under. Most donors are pouring money into Zimbabwe because they want to see Mugabe go. It is not clear whether they will stay in the country when he is gone.

Another group that is likely to face a hard time if Mugabe goes are journalists. Some journalists have thrown ethics out of the window as they try to cash in on the crisis. Instead of reporting on events as they happen or analyse the issues involved, some journalists have taken clear positions. Mugabe has to go. There is no room for compromise. They do not even entertain a government of national unity. A transitional government is only good enough if Mugabe is out.

Observers say this group of journalists, including some who work for organisations like the British Broadcasting Corporation, which are regarded locally as the flagships of objective reporting, lost thousands of dollars after betting that Mugabe would lose the presidential elections of 2002. They have never forgiven themselves for losing the bet. All they see is turmoil in ZANU-PF and constant battles about Mugabe's succession. These journalists talk about 23 years of misrule by Mugabe yet, one respected African commentator, also a critic of Mugabe, clearly admits that: "There is very little doubt that, had (Mugabe) served just two terms as head of government between 1980 and 1988,he would have gone down as one of Africa's most effective politicians: the guerilla leader and intellectual who led his country's fight for independence and, having achieved it, implemented one of the most radical expansions of educational and health provision that any developing country has ever seen."

For these journalists, the only solution to the country's present crisis is for Mugabe to go. There is no way he can negotiate with the MDC. Statements by South African President Thabo Mbeki that ZANU-PF and the MDC are talking are all lies. Mbeki is biased. He does not want the MDC to take over because he is afraid this could spur the Congress of South African Trade Unions (COSATU) to quit the African National Congress coalition to form a political party just like the Zimbabwe Congress of Trade Unions to form the MDC. Mbeki's quiet diplomacy has not paid off. It is a way of entrenching ZANU-PF rule. Anyone, including fellow journalists, who sees things differently is a Mugabe apologist.

But while denouncing Mbeki the same journalists claim to have inside sources in Mbeki's camp who tell them that Mugabe will be gone before the end of the year or at the latest by June next year. One media observer said it was not clear who their sources of information were, but it appeared they were committing "incest" half of the time, that is, feeding on information from like-minded journalists and recycling that information until they finally use it as background for their stories. In some cases they are deliberately being fed information by groups with similar interests, groups that only see the solution to Zimbabwe's crisis as the replacement of Mugabe by someone from the opposition.

Ironically, most of these journalists are reported to have links to the gay community, a community that has an axe to grind with Mugabe for calling them worse than "dogs and pigs". Though some of them are married, whispers say these are marriages of convenience. Several satirical columns have alluded to these allegations which have never been seriously refuted.

Another group that might not like Mugabe's departure are the asylum seekers. One of the easiest ways to get asylum, especially because of the hefty visa application fees now being charged by the main destinations Zimbabweans flock to, such as South Africa and Britain, is to claim that one is fleeing harassment by the Mugabe administration. Though the South African and British governments do not readily accept these excuses, opposition parties in those countries are capitalising on such cases to score points against the ruling parties.

There might be no reason to seek asylum once Mugabe has gone. But, as some analysts, who have been accused of being Mugabe apologists have said, Zimbabweans will be in for a big surprise when Mugabe goes. It will take years to get the country back on track. Mugabe's departure will not translate into an immediate solution to the country's problems, even if donors and the international community pour in the billions of dollars they have promised.

Not everyone will be happy to see Mugabe go, however. A lot of people have benefited from his political patronage and the corruption that he has allowed to pervade the country over the past two decades. The Sampson Paweni food scandal of the early 1980s created the first group of nouveau riche, and so did the Willowgate Motor scandal at the end of the decade. Indigenisation and the current land reform has also created millionaires and billionaires, who are probably scared to death whether they will be able to retain their wealth if a new government takes over because a lot of eyebrows will be raised about how they rose from rags to riches.

But Mugabe's departure, will no doubt be a starting point. When he goes he will leave a trail of wealthy people. Those who made money by supporting him. Those who made money by opposing him. And those who made money simply by writing about him.

© Insider Publications 2003. This story is available for syndication. Contact the publisher at insider@ecoweb.co.zw or charlesrukuni@yahoo.com