Exiled former Higher Education Minister Jonathan Moyo, by claiming in his new book, Excelgate, that Movement for Democratic Change leader Nelson Chamisa won 66 percent of the vote in the 2018 elections but was rigged out by the Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front, is literary saying Chamisa is stupid.
Moyo was quoted as saying: “In this book, I show how the military used ZEC to steal Zimbabwe’s presidential election from main opposition leader Nelson Chamisa who received 66% of the vote, to benefit Mnangagwa whose actual tally was 33%. The irrefutable evidence is overwhelming and beyond rational disputation. It is an open and shut case.”
If Moyo was quoted correctly, this means that Chamisa polled 3.2 million votes from the 4.8 million valid votes cast.
Even if we subtract all the votes that went to the 21 other presidential candidates this leaves Chamisa and Mnangagwa with a total of 4.6 million votes which means Chamisa got 3 million.
Chamisa has argued all along that he won 2.6 million votes. Why would he shortchange himself with 400 000 to 600 000 votes?
Some 1.6 million people voted for all the MDC legislators which means, according to Moyo, about the same number that did not vote for his MPs voted for Chamisa, a staggering 1.4 to 1.6 million more.
If as Moyo says, Mnangagwa got 33 percent of the vote, that would mean he polled 1.6 million votes.
ZANU-PF legislators got a total of 2.5 million votes.
Even if we accept that there was “bhora musango” because the G40 element and former President Robert Mugabe supported Chamisa, the gap is just too wide.
If all the 900 000 more people that voted for ZANU-PF MPs voted for Chamisa, his tally would still be 2.5 million. That is a far cry from 66 percent.
One also needs to look at the much hyped “bhora musango” of 2008.
Mugabe was indeed beaten by Morgan Tsvangirai of the MDC in the first round, the March 2008 elections.
Tsvangirai polled 1 195 562 votes. Mugabe got 1 079 730 votes.
ZANU-PF Members of Parliament polled 1 110 649 votes. So the truth is that if everyone who voted for a ZANU-PF MP voted for Mugabe, he would still have lost to Tsvangirai. Only 30 919 people, based on the figures alone, who voted for a ZANU-PF MP did not vote for Mugabe.
In 2018, according to the official figures, Mnangagwa polled 2 456 010 votes. ZANU-PF MPs got 2 477 708, which means 21 698 more people did not vote for Mnangagwa.
Or is Moyo simply saying we should throw out all these figures?
As the Constitutional Court said in its full judgment, challenging the 2018 election results without using the primary data is just a waste of time.
That primary data was there but the MDC said it could not use it because it was a “poisoned chalice”. But the judges asked, how did they know it was a poisoned chalice without opening the ballot boxes? If they had done so this would have proved their case.
With at most 42 months to go before the next elections, isn’t it time to concentrate on the next elections?
The Constitutional Court judgment in Chamisa’s election challenge has clearly laid out what the party ought to do to avoid any rigging in the next elections.
The party must for a start mobilise enough funds to have polling agents at every polling station and make sure that they get copies of every V11 form at every polling station.
It is possible to successfully challenge an election result. Here is how the Ghana opposition did it.