The Insider - Zimbabwe 2010 forecast: Who will be the key players?

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The Insider - January 2010

Zimbabwe 2010 forecast: Who will be the key players?

Zimbabwe had a promising start to 2010 with the country's principal leaders showing on Christmas Eve that they are committed to seeing that the inclusive government will not collapse.

President Robert Mugabe of the Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Font (ZANU-PF), Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai of the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) and Deputy Prime Minister Arthur Mutambara of the smaller faction of the MDC, held a joint press conference on December 23 at which they admitted that though they still had minor differences, the inclusive government that was formed in February was not going to collapse.

This assurance, just days after the ZANU-PF national congress and a meeting of the MDC-T national executive, is likely to provide the political stability that the nation needs to move forward.

Tensions were still visible among the leaders as they spoke, but they said these were not insurmountable. The three said they generally agreed on most things but they had to listen to the voices of their constituencies and at times things that they had agreed on were reversed.

This was quite evident from the statements issued at the ZANU-PF congress and by the MDC-T national executive.

The ZANU-PF congress, for example, argued that it was not going to allow its leadership to agree to any of the outstanding issues raised by the MDC-T unless outstanding issues raised by ZANU-PF were addressed at the same time.

The MDC-T national executive council meeting on December 20 gave ZANU-PF until January 15 to resolve all outstanding issues in the global political agreement.

The outstanding issues for the MDC are the reversal of the appointments of attorney-general Johannes Tomana and central bank governor Gideon Gono, the swearing in of deputy minister of agriculture Roy Bennett who is currently facing terrorism charges; and the appointment of five provincial governors from the MDC-T.

ZANU-PF at its congress which ended on December 19 instructed "the President and First Secretary and the party negotiators to ensure that all outstanding issues, once agreed, must be implemented concurrently".

"This means there should be no movement on the concerns of the MDC Formations without corresponding and simultaneous redress of ZANU-PF's concerns such as the illegal Western sanctions, Western funded pirate radio broadcasts and Western interference in Zimbabwe's internal politics through the funding of parallel government structures and the sponsoring of political activities of NGOs as a force multiplier for the MDC formations," the congress said.

The December 23 press conference seemed to be watering down these hardline stances with Tsvangirai even saying that they were going to deal with all outstanding issues, "if any".

President Robert Mugabe who turns 86 next month still remains in control of ZANU-PF. But he is not calling the shots the way most people think. He remains at the helm because ZANU-PF wants to maintain the semblance that it is stable.

The party hangs together when under threat. Factions remain but people bury their political differences to fight the common "enemy"- here Tsvangirai's MDC. It is now clear to everyone with higher political ambitions that there is no life outside the party. Talk of a split is therefore ill-informed.

Simba Makoni broke away and he is nowhere today because all those who had promised to join him refused to leave the party when they realised that he had not managed to break Mugabe's hold.

The same happened in neighbouring South Africa. Terror Lekota split from the African National Congress but failed to attract enough supporters to break the ANC support. He is virtually nowhere today.

Those in ZANU-PF realise the same thing could happen if they break away.

Solomon Mujuru and his wife Joyce, the country's vice-President, and Emmerson Mnangangwa remain key players in ZANU-PF. John Nkomo and Simon Khaya Moyo, though now in the presidium, are there for window dressing to preserve the 1987 unity accord that brought together the Zimbabwe African People's Union and ZANU-PF.

Things are much more promising for Moyo because he is still young. But he cannot rise beyond vice-President under the present set up. ZANU-PF has to drastically change if former ZAPU members are to rise beyond vice-president.

This is what war veterans from Matabeleland led by Jabulani Sibanda who is national chairman of the war veterans association have been fighting for. Sibanda and his group argue that positions within the party should not be allocated along the ZAPU and ZANU-Jongwe lines, but on merit, because ZAPU would continue to play second fiddle to ZANU-PF.

In the MDC, Tsvangirai is firmly in control of his party. Teething problems that were caused by his deputy Thokozani Khupe who had ganged up with secretary-general Tendai Biti and some disgruntled elements from Matabeleland, seem to have been resolved for now.

But Tsvangirai faces more pressure than Mugabe because everyone is looking up to him to move the country forward. Key players in his party continue to be Biti, who is effectively the party's number two.

Nelson Chamisa, though overshadowed by Biti most of the time, is more popular with the cadres than anyone else apart from Tsvangirai. He is like the Julius Malema of the MDC but has cooled down a little after becoming a government minister.

The third key player is Elias Mudzuri. He remains a distant third. Leaders from Matabeleland will continue to play second fiddle because they spoiled things for themselves when they tried to play the tribal card to get more concessions from Tsvangirai.

Mutambara, has only 10 seats out of the 210 in the lower house, but he is the kingmaker, a role that he and his strong supporters such as David Coltart have emphasised to their supporters.

Tsvangirai and Mugabe are technically locked at 100 seats each following Jonathan Moyo's rejoining of ZANU-PF. Mutambara is concentrating on the economy and seems to be the arbiter between the elder statesmen, Mugabe and Tsvangirai.

Key players in his party continue to be Welshman Ncube, the party's secretary general and Minister of Industry and his deputy Priscilla Misihairabwi Mushonga.

Coltart also continues to play a key role. He leads the biggest government ministry, that of Education, Sports and Culture.

Though also a former police officer under the Ian Smith regime, Coltart seems to be more acceptable to ZANU-PF and Mugabe than his colleague Roy Bennett, treasurer of Tsvangirai's party.

It is not clear why because Coltart, a leading human rights lawyer, has equally been critical of Mugabe. Perhaps it is because Bennett holds the purse for the MDC-T.

Posted- 11 January 2010

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