Was Bob's victory real?

President Robert Mugabe emerged from the recent Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) congress "renewed, invigorated, rejuvenated and born again", but observers say though he tried to give the impression that he was in total control of the party, that has been in power since independence, he had conceded a lot of ground to his lieutenants, who had tried to defy his order to nominate a woman as vice-president.

Mugabe, who was frothing with anger after learning that six provincial chairmen, including his trusted spin-doctor Jonathan Moyo, had tried to block the nomination of Joyce Teurai Ropa Mujuru whom he had personally anointed as vice-president, only managed to discipline one senior official, Moyo, the man who had rescued him from near demise in 2000, though he had vowed to deal with all those who had participated in what has now been dubbed the Tsholotsho Declaration.

Though there was a lot of hullabaloo about the suspension of the six provincial chairmen: Jacob Mudenda of Matabeleland North, Themba Ncube of Bulawayo, Lloyd Siyoka of Matabeleland South, Daniel Shumba of Masvingo, July Moyo of the Midlands and Mike Madiro of Manicaland, these were small-fry apart perhaps from July Moyo who is Minister of Energy and Power.

The only big man to get the chop was Jonathan Moyo, who in the end robbed Mujuru of the limelight as he became the main focus, reducing Mujuru's victory to a sideshow. Moyo, who had won a seat in the central committee in an election in Tsholotsho watched forlornly as Cain Mathema, the man he had trounced 73 to 23 votes, took over his seat.

But what everyone seemed to be overlooking was how the remainder of the "culprits" had got away. Mugabe had done nothing about Emmerson Mnangagwa, who was Mujuru's main challenger and was supposed to be the brains behind the meeting that sparked the crisis.

Though Mugabe suspended war veterans leader Jabulani Sibanda for four years for attending the meeting and other previous cases of indiscipline, he did nothing about Sibanda's deputy Joseph Chinotimba who was elected into the central committee by Harare province, and got an applause that almost matched that of Mujuru when his name came up.

Mugabe did nothing about Justice Minister Patrick Chinamasa, who stood in for Mnangagwa as the guest of honour, and was challenging another Mugabe favourite, John Nkomo for the post of national chairman.

He did nothing about Masvingo governor Josaya Hungwe, a long-time Mugabe loyalist who kept a check on Eddison Zvobgo's ambitions to rise to the top, Deputy Minister of Transport Andrew Langa a known Mnangagwa loyalist, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Abednico Ncube and Minister of State Flora Buka who all attended the function.

Observers say the fact that only Jonathan Moyo ended up as the fall guy was a clear indication of the tough bargaining by those who should have got the sack for participating in the Tsholotsho meeting.

And they couldn't have chosen a better sacrificial lamb. Jonathan Moyo already had enough enemies in the ruling party, among the public and in the media where his iron fist has already cost nearly 1 500 jobs.

His exclusion from the central committee, which put his position in the powerful politburo and his cabinet post on the line stole all the media attention from Mujuru. Moyo became the focus with the key question being whether he would survive in Mugabe's cabinet or not. This was an indication of how powerful Moyo had become in just four years.

The critical issue that the congress was supposed to address, the issue of succession, was completely forgotten. Also forgotten was the fact that Mugabe had bulldozed Mujuru to the post of vice-presidency.

If it was true that the six provincial chairmen who were suspended were against Mujuru's nomination, then this indicates a serious rift between Mugabe and the provincial party leaders because it means only four provinces were for the nomination. The question then is, if six provinces were originally opposed to Mujuru and supported Mnangagwa, how did two change sides on actual nomination? Were they simply panel beaten to change sides or, as accusations go, they were paid to change sides?

It might be difficult to get an answer to that now but what was crucial was that the six chairmen did not challenge their suspension which means that they admitted that they had erred and accepted to be disciplined by the party. This was another victory for Mugabe because it gave the impression he was still in control.

But the worst may not be over yet. The suspended chairmen and the leaders of the aborted palace coup may just be buying time to allow the party to win the March elections. Though Mugabe seems to have got his way, the Young Turks feel that Mugabe's purge is an insult to them because their hard work had helped rebuild the party after the opposition Movement for Democratic Change had almost clobbered it in the 2000 elections.

Herald columnist, Nathaniel Manheru, who most people claim is Jonathan Moyo, aptly put it this way: "ZANU-PF needs to introspect a little and see itself warts and all. Its Young Turks may have been abrasive and even subversive, but they represent an urge that exists in the party, which may grow stronger and too insistent to be ignored, the urge for a style more competitive, elective and meritorious.

"Equally, its old guard represents wisdom and the radical continuity of struggle. But not all of them are patriotic, innovative, current, competent and of democratic temperament...... Some in their midst hide behind the aura of age, the halo of time and in fact stand greatly beholden to the same Young Turks who stood stout and steadfast to reorganise against the MDC after the 2000 bruising challenge. Moyo and his colleagues may have erred, may even be a problem. But they are hardly enemies."

Observers say by kicking out Moyo and Sibanda, and dragging back spent forces like Dumiso Dabengwa, Sikhanyiso Ndlovu and Edson Ncube who had been rejected by the provincial leadership, ZANU-PF could have lost Matabeleland.

Moyo and Sibanda, though prone to indiscipline and disrespect for their superiors, were workhorses that had brought ZANU-PF back to the forefront in a region that has over the past two decades not wanted anything to do with Mugabe.

Observers also say Mugabe, who is increasingly showing that he has no intention to retire and may want to keep power within the northern provinces, had also managed to skirt the issue of succession.

They claim that though Mugabe seemed to have anointed Mujuru as his successor even asking congress delegates: "When you choose a vice-President, you don't want her to remain in that position forever, do you?" he had left the race wide open.

Others argue that Mugabe had weakened the party because neither of his two lieutenants Joseph Msika and Joyce Mujuru could, in their personal capacities, stand against MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai.

But others said people were reading too much into the elevation of Mujuru. "Being appointed vice-President does not take you any closer to the top post than any other senior member of the party," argued political analyst, Heneri Dzinotyiwei.

"Mujuru's chances of becoming president are just the same as those of anyone else. If you look at recent events in Southern Africa, you will realise that none of the sitting vice-Presidents assumed the top post when the president retired. In Zambia Frederick Chiluba's deputy did not take over when he resigned. This was the same in Malawi when Muluzi (Bakili) retired, in Namibia when Sam Nujoma retired, in Mozambique where Chissano is stepping down."

Even the country's constitution does not guarantee that a vice-president can take over. The vice-president can only act as president for a maximum of 90 days after which elections for president must be held.

But Mugabe, who has been dubbed by Slate magazine as a "scheming survivor" may have something up his sleeve. He told the congress after they seemed reluctant to endorse Mujuru as the next president: "I have a dream, and I will tell you about it."

The dream, observers say, is to let Mujuru act as president while he hangs on thus ensuring she takes over control and starts building up her profile and purging the party of all the current leaders who might stand in her way.

It is not clear whether those who were opposed to her way will stomach this, because there must be a lot of disgruntled senior party officials at the moment. For one, ZANU-PF had destroyed the formula that has kept it intact from 1978. It has kicked out the Karanga, who demographically constitute the largest group in the country, out of the presidency. The current presidency is from only two groups, one Ndebele ( John Nkomo) and three people from Mashonaland ( Mugabe, Mujuru and Msika).

The Tsholotsho meeting had intended to ensure that the formula that gave the presidency to the four key tribal groups was retained with Mugabe (Zezuru), Tenjiwe Lesabe (Ndebele), Mnangagwa ( Karanga) and Chinamasa (Manyika).

Mugabe has, therefore, just postponed the debate about who will succeed him. In the meantime, he remains in charge. And for now he is the only one who can deliver a ZANU-PF victory in the March elections if the party is still united up to then.

Posted 16 December 2004

© Insider Publications 2004. This story is available for syndication. Contact the publisher at charlesrukuni@insiderzim.com