Bad news for Zimbabwe-The scary side of the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange bull run


Just as the economy was getting into worse trouble, factional wars were peaking in the ruling ZANU-PF party.

A year earlier, in 2006, President Mugabe had tried to get his party to extend his term by an extra two years.

At a ZANU-PF conference in Goromonzi, the Mujuru faction pushed back and Mugabe climbed down.

But he soon fought back, pushing for a special congress in December 2007 to have his party endorse him as its candidate for 2008.

Ahead of that meeting, much like in 2017, marches and rallies were to support him and to shake out the rebels.

It was no better in the opposition.

With 2008 beckoning, warring MDC factions had signed a draft coalition agreement on 1 April 2007.

The deal collapsed in no time over quarrels about which party would get what position should Mugabe be defeated, and disagreements over the number of candidates each faction would put forward.

Ten years later, the same quarrels are threatening the MDC Alliance.

So, much like in 2017, both ZANU-PF and the MDC were in 2007 engrossed in factional battles while the economy was sending an SOS.

Just like today, the economy was not a priority.

In fact, as war veteran Jabulani Sibanda declared at one pro-Mugabe march in 2007, “we will support Mugabe with our empty stomachs and empty shelves”.

Economists often debate whether a stock market really is a barometer of its economy.

Time and again, the ZSE has beaten its own path.

However, what cannot be ignored is the message that the market is sending; we have been here before, and we did the same things.

Unless something is done, and differently, just as the signs of 2007 pointed to the catastrophe of 2008, so will the signs now in 2017 lead the economy, and the politics, into similar trouble in 2018. – The Source


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The Insider

The Insider is a political and business bulletin about Zimbabwe, edited by Charles Rukuni. Founded in 1990, it was a printed 12-page subscription only newsletter until 2003 when Zimbabwe's hyper-inflation made it impossible to continue printing.


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